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AAPLYahoo Finance ↗AppleTechnology

~$262PE: 28xMCap: $3.8T-9% from ATH

Market data via Yahoo Finance as of Feb 12, 2026· Analysis as of Feb 11, 2026

-9

COMPOSITE

+34%

BULL UPSIDE

ENTRY QUALITY

65%

CONFIDENCE

ℹ️ How are these calculated?

COMPOSITE = Σ(event relevance × event probability) × entry quality / 100. Combines how much this stock benefits from macro events with how good the entry point is right now. For AAPL: (25 × 85% + 0 × 60% + 0 × 35% + -75 × 55% + 20 × 0% + 0 × 0% + 0 × 0%) × 46/100 = -9. Higher is better. Range: typically 0–100.

BULL UPSIDE = (bull price target − current price) / current price. For AAPL: ($350 − $262) / $262 = +34%. This is the maximum upside if the most optimistic analyst thesis plays out.

ENTRY QUALITY (0–100) = how attractive the current price is as a buy point. Based on: % below all-time high (-9%), upside to bull PT (+34%), forward PE (28x vs sector), and analyst conviction. Score: 46. Fair entry — modest discount or near-term headwinds.

CONFIDENCE = our overall conviction in the thesis (0–100%). Factors: strength of catalysts, analyst coverage quality, thesis durability, risk/reward skew.Moderate conviction — thesis is solid but risks are material.

$169~$262$289$350

52W LowATHBull PT

🎯 Investment Thesis

Q1 FY2026 earnings (Jan 30) drove mixed analyst reaction — Maxim upgraded to Buy $300, JP Morgan raised to $325, but Barclays maintains Underweight $239. "Game-changer" iPhone with enhanced Apple Intelligence launching spring 2026 could drive an upgrade supercycle. At $279, only 3% below ATH — market is pricing in the bull case.

⚠️ Key Risk

Barclays Underweight $239 implies 14% downside. China trade war remains the existential risk — 19% revenue + Foxconn manufacturing. 30x PE for 5% growth is rich. Tariff escalation = higher iPhone prices or compressed margins. India/Vietnam diversification progressing but slow.

By The Numbers

Price

$262

ATH

$289

52W Low

$169

Fwd PE

28x

Market Cap

$3.8T

Revenue

$391B

Rev Growth

+5% YoY

Gross Margin

46.2%

Op Margin

31.5%

FCF

$110B

Cash

$65B

Debt

$105B

Event Impact

🤖

AI Infrastructure Boom

Apple Intelligence on-device AI. Consumer of AI, not infra builder.

+25 ⚔️

Iran Geopolitical Crisis

No defense or energy exposure.

0 ⚛️

Quantum Computing Breakout

No quantum relevance.

0 🇨🇳

China Trade War Escalation

19% revenue from Greater China. Massive Foxconn manufacturing. iPhone ban risk.

-75 💵

USD & Fed Policy

~60% international revenue benefits from weaker dollar. $65B cash insulated from rates. Consumer spending sensitive to economic cycle but Apple brand is resilient.

+20 ⚡

Energy Grid Supercycle

No energy grid relevance.

0 🏛️

US Fiscal & DOGE

No significant fiscal exposure. Tariffs on Chinese imports could raise iPhone costs but that's China trade, not fiscal policy.