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USD & Fed Policy

ACTIVEUpdated Mar 13, 2026

◆ What's Happening

**Trading Day 10 (Mar 13) — PCE confirms inflation, FOMC stakes raised:**

**PCE RESULT (January 2026 data, released Mar 13):** - Headline PCE: 2.8% YoY (in line with December) - Core PCE: 3.1% YoY (UP from 3.0% — hot, above 2% target) - This is the Fed's preferred inflation measure and it moved in the WRONG direction - The data pre-dates the Hormuz oil shock — March/April PCE will be significantly worse

**2Y yield surged 3.8%→4.4%:** The front end of the curve repriced aggressively. Rate cuts now priced out through Q3 2026 at minimum. CME FedWatch: 75% probability fed funds stays 3.5-3.75% through summer.

**10Y at 4.285%:** Yields at 5-week high. The bond market sees inflation that the Fed cannot ignore.

**TLT -0.49% ($87→$87):** Bonds continuing to sell. TLT at $87 is 7.4% below ATH ($94). The rate-sensitive channel remains negative.

**ENPH +3.45% ($43→$44):** Solar RALLYING despite hot PCE — the oil thesis ($99 WTI) is overpowering the rate headwind for the first time. This is a notable divergence.

**FOMC (Mar 17-18, Tuesday-Wednesday):** The Fed's dilemma is now acute: - Hot PCE (core 3.1%, rising) argues for holding or signaling 0 cuts - BLS -92K employment weakness argues for easing - Oil at $99 heading toward $100 makes forward inflation outlook dire - PPI releases Mar 18 (same day as FOMC decision) - The dot plot decision: 0 cuts vs 2 cuts. Market pricing 0 cuts.

📈 Bull Case

PCE headline 2.8% (in line) shows underlying inflation is not accelerating catastrophically. The hot core (3.1%) is 0.1% — within noise. If FOMC maintains 2 cuts in dot plot despite hot PCE, rate-sensitive names rally hard. ENPH +3.45% despite hot PCE shows the oil channel can overpower rates for energy names. Dollar strength helping import costs.

📉 Bear Case

Core PCE 3.1% and RISING — the Fed's preferred measure moving in the wrong direction. 2Y yield surging to 4.4% is the market pricing 0 cuts definitively. Oil at $99 means March/April PCE will be even worse. The Fed is trapped: hot PCE + $99 oil = inflation accelerating. BLS -92K = economy weakening. Stagflation risk is real. If FOMC signals 0 cuts, rate-sensitive names face sharp selloff. TLT has further downside.

◆ Rate & FX Exposure

21 stocks across 4 categories. Tap a category to expand.

TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
$87.00
USD & Fed Policy: +85 bull+85
-7% ATH+25% bullN/A PE
US Debt & Spending Crisis: -30 bearNew Trade Bloc Formation: -25 bear
Mkt Cap ETF · PE N/A · 52W Low $83.00
CATCaterpillar
$694.00
USD & Fed Policy: +30 bull+30
-12% ATH+27% bull25x PE
Global Trade Realignment: +55 bullEnergy Grid Supercycle: +40 bullNew Trade Bloc Formation: +30 bullUS Debt & Spending Crisis: +30 bull
Mkt Cap $325B · PE 25x · 52W Low $267.00
GOOGLAlphabet
$302.00
USD & Fed Policy: +25 bull+25
-13% ATH+42% bull23x PE
Quantum Computing Breakout: +75 bullAI Infrastructure Boom: +72 bullAI Workforce Disruption: +55 bull
Mkt Cap $3.7T · PE 23x · 52W Low $141.00
AAPLApple
$250.00
USD & Fed Policy: +20 bull+20
-13% ATH+40% bull27x PE
Global Trade Realignment: -70 bearNew Trade Bloc Formation: -30 bearAI Infrastructure Boom: +25 bull
Mkt Cap $3.7T · PE 27x · 52W Low $169.00
QCOMQualcomm
$130.00
USD & Fed Policy: +15 bull+15
-38% ATH+69% bull12x PE
Global Trade Realignment: -55 bearNew Trade Bloc Formation: -35 bearAI Infrastructure Boom: +30 bull
Mkt Cap $139B · PE 12x · 52W Low $121.00
NKENike
$54.00
USD & Fed Policy: +15 bull+15
-46% ATH+85% bull23x PE
Global Trade Realignment: -55 bear
Mkt Cap $79.9B · PE 23x · 52W Low $52.00
ETNEaton Corporation
$355.00
USD & Fed Policy: +15 bull+15
-13% ATH+55% bull23x PE
AI Infrastructure Boom: +75 bullEnergy Grid Supercycle: +75 bullNew Trade Bloc Formation: +22 bull
Mkt Cap $138B · PE 23x · 52W Low $232.00
NVDANVIDIA Corporation
$180.00
USD & Fed Policy: +15 bull+15
-15% ATH+56% bull17x PE
AI Infrastructure Boom: +98 bullAI Workforce Disruption: +30 bullGlobal Trade Realignment: -25 bear
Mkt Cap $4.4T · PE 17x · 52W Low $87.00
GEVGE Vernova
$805.00
USD & Fed Policy: +15 bull+15
-10% ATH+37% bull35x PE
Energy Grid Supercycle: +95 bullAI Infrastructure Boom: +35 bull
Mkt Cap $218B · PE 35x · 52W Low $252.00
APHAmphenol
$134.00
USD & Fed Policy: +10 bull+10
-20% ATH+57% bull26x PE
AI Infrastructure Boom: +68 bull
Mkt Cap $165B · PE 26x · 52W Low $56.00
EMREmerson Electric
$132.00
USD & Fed Policy: +10 bull+10
-20% ATH+36% bull18x PE
Energy Grid Supercycle: +50 bullAI Workforce Disruption: +25 bull
Mkt Cap $74.4B · PE 18x · 52W Low $90.00
GLWCorning
$129.00
USD & Fed Policy: +10 bull+10
-20% ATH+33% bull33x PE
AI Infrastructure Boom: +78 bull
Mkt Cap $111B · PE 33x · 52W Low $37.00
NEMNewmont Corporation
$110.00
USD & Fed Policy: +70 bull+70
-19% ATH+59% bull10x PE
US Debt & Spending Crisis: +75 bullGeopolitical Instability: +35 bull
Mkt Cap $120B · PE 10x · 52W Low $43.00
GLDSPDR Gold Trust
$461.00
USD & Fed Policy: +60 bull+60
-10% ATH+27% bullN/A PE
Geopolitical Instability: +95 bullUS Debt & Spending Crisis: +55 bullNew Trade Bloc Formation: +32 bull
Mkt Cap ETF · PE N/A · 52W Low $273.00
XOMExxon Mobil
$156.00
USD & Fed Policy: +35 bull+35
-2% ATH+19% bull18x PE
Geopolitical Instability: +85 bull
Mkt Cap $651B · PE 18x · 52W Low $98.00
MPMP Materials
$57.00
USD & Fed Policy: +20 bull+20
-43% ATH+65% bull45x PE
Global Trade Realignment: +85 bullUS Debt & Spending Crisis: +50 bullNew Trade Bloc Formation: +40 bull
Mkt Cap $10.2B · PE 45x · 52W Low $19.00
JPMJPMorgan Chase
$283.00
USD & Fed Policy: +85 bull+85
-16% ATH+41% bull12x PE
US Debt & Spending Crisis: +35 bull
Mkt Cap $764B · PE 12x · 52W Low $202.00
GSGoldman Sachs
$782.00
USD & Fed Policy: +80 bull+80
-21% ATH+41% bull12x PE
US Debt & Spending Crisis: +25 bullAI Workforce Disruption: +25 bull
Mkt Cap $235B · PE 12x · 52W Low $439.00
BXBlackstone
$107.00
USD & Fed Policy: +60 bull+60
-44% ATH+87% bull13x PE
Mkt Cap $131B · PE 13x · 52W Low $102.00

📋 Also Impacted — scored for this event but uncategorized

GMGeneral Motors
$72.00
USD & Fed Policy: +15 bull+15
-18% ATH+67% bull5x PE
Global Trade Realignment: +50 bullNew Trade Bloc Formation: +45 bull
Mkt Cap $67.5B · PE 5x · 52W Low $42.00
TSMTaiwan Semiconductor
$338.00
USD & Fed Policy: +15 bull+15
-13% ATH+54% bull19x PE
AI Infrastructure Boom: +95 bullGeopolitical Instability: -50 bearGlobal Trade Realignment: -30 bearNew Trade Bloc Formation: +30 bull
Mkt Cap $1.8T · PE 19x · 52W Low $134.00

🛡️ At Risk — negative exposure to this event

DLRDigital Realty Trust
$180.00
USD & Fed Policy: -35 bear-35
-3% ATH+22% bull53x PE
AI Infrastructure Boom: +75 bullEnergy Grid Supercycle: +25 bull
Mkt Cap $62.8B · PE 53x · 52W Low $130.00
CRWVCoreWeave
$81.00
USD & Fed Policy: -30 bear-30
-57% ATH+210% bull39x PE
AI Infrastructure Boom: +88 bullAI Workforce Disruption: +25 bull
Mkt Cap $42.6B · PE 39x · 52W Low $34.00
TSLATesla
$391.00
USD & Fed Policy: -30 bear-30
-22% ATH+53% bull139x PE
Global Trade Realignment: -65 bearEnergy Grid Supercycle: +30 bullAI Workforce Disruption: +30 bullNew Trade Bloc Formation: -25 bear
Mkt Cap $1.5T · PE 139x · 52W Low $214.00
BEBloom Energy
$155.00
USD & Fed Policy: -30 bear-30
-14% ATH+42% bull53x PE
Energy Grid Supercycle: +80 bullAI Infrastructure Boom: +75 bull
Mkt Cap $43.3B · PE 53x · 52W Low $15.00
EQIXEquinix
$970.00
USD & Fed Policy: -30 bear-30
-2% ATH+19% bull55x PE
AI Infrastructure Boom: +80 bullEnergy Grid Supercycle: +25 bullNew Trade Bloc Formation: +22 bull
Mkt Cap $95.3B · PE 55x · 52W Low $701.00
ARMArm Holdings
$116.00
USD & Fed Policy: -25 bear-25
-38% ATH+98% bull54x PE
AI Infrastructure Boom: +78 bullNew Trade Bloc Formation: +25 bull
Mkt Cap $123B · PE 54x · 52W Low $80.00
NBISNebius Group
$113.00
USD & Fed Policy: -25 bear-25
-20% ATH+33% bullN/A PE
AI Infrastructure Boom: +85 bullAI Workforce Disruption: +25 bull
Mkt Cap $28.6B · PE N/A · 52W Low $18.00
INTCIntel
$46.00
USD & Fed Policy: -25 bear-25
-16% ATH+55% bull46x PE
Global Trade Realignment: +80 bullAI Infrastructure Boom: +40 bullNew Trade Bloc Formation: +35 bullUS Debt & Spending Crisis: +35 bull
Mkt Cap $229B · PE 46x · 52W Low $18.00
NEENextEra Energy
$93.00
USD & Fed Policy: -25 bear-25
-3% ATH+19% bull21x PE
Energy Grid Supercycle: +85 bullUS Debt & Spending Crisis: +30 bull
Mkt Cap $193B · PE 21x · 52W Low $62.00
ENPHEnphase Energy
$44.00
USD & Fed Policy: -25 bear-25
-38% ATH+82% bull16x PE
Energy Grid Supercycle: +55 bullUS Debt & Spending Crisis: +25 bull
Mkt Cap $5.8B · PE 16x · 52W Low $26.00
RGTIRigetti Computing
$16.00
USD & Fed Policy: -20 bear-20
-72% ATH+244% bullN/A PE
Quantum Computing Breakout: +90 bull
Mkt Cap $5.4B · PE N/A · 52W Low $7.00
CEGConstellation Energy
$302.00
USD & Fed Policy: -20 bear-20
-27% ATH+52% bull22x PE
Energy Grid Supercycle: +95 bullAI Infrastructure Boom: +70 bullGeopolitical Instability: +45 bullUS Debt & Spending Crisis: +25 bull
Mkt Cap $109B · PE 22x · 52W Low $161.00
VRTVertiv Holdings
$259.00
USD & Fed Policy: -20 bear-20
-6% ATH+24% bull32x PE
AI Infrastructure Boom: +90 bullEnergy Grid Supercycle: +35 bull
Mkt Cap $99B · PE 32x · 52W Low $54.00
SMRNuScale Power
$12.00
USD & Fed Policy: -20 bear-20
-79% ATH+192% bullN/A PE
Energy Grid Supercycle: +70 bullGeopolitical Instability: +30 bullUS Debt & Spending Crisis: +25 bull
Mkt Cap $3.8B · PE N/A · 52W Low $11.00
OKLOOklo Inc
$58.00
USD & Fed Policy: -20 bear-20
-70% ATH+107% bullN/A PE
Energy Grid Supercycle: +65 bull
Mkt Cap $9.1B · PE N/A · 52W Low $17.00
SOSouthern Company
$98.00
USD & Fed Policy: -20 bear-20
-3% ATH+22% bull20x PE
Energy Grid Supercycle: +70 bull
Mkt Cap $110B · PE 20x · 52W Low $83.00
PLDPrologis
$132.00
USD & Fed Policy: -20 bear-20
-8% ATH+19% bull39x PE
Global Trade Realignment: +50 bullNew Trade Bloc Formation: +40 bull
Mkt Cap $122B · PE 39x · 52W Low $85.00
DELLDell Technologies
$152.00
USD & Fed Policy: -15 bear-15
-13% ATH+18% bull11x PE
AI Infrastructure Boom: +82 bull
Mkt Cap $102B · PE 11x · 52W Low $66.00
VSTVistra Corp
$159.00
USD & Fed Policy: -15 bear-15
-28% ATH+45% bull14x PE
Energy Grid Supercycle: +90 bullAI Infrastructure Boom: +78 bullGeopolitical Instability: +25 bull
Mkt Cap $53.9B · PE 14x · 52W Low $91.00
ALABAstera Labs
$120.00
USD & Fed Policy: -15 bear-15
-54% ATH+133% bull34x PE
AI Infrastructure Boom: +90 bull
Mkt Cap $20.5B · PE 34x · 52W Low $47.00
RTXRTX Corporation
$205.00
USD & Fed Policy: -15 bear-15
-5% ATH+27% bull27x PE
Geopolitical Instability: +92 bullUS Debt & Spending Crisis: +75 bullGlobal Trade Realignment: +25 bull
Mkt Cap $275B · PE 27x · 52W Low $112.00
IONQIonQ
$33.00
USD & Fed Policy: -15 bear-15
-61% ATH+173% bullN/A PE
Quantum Computing Breakout: +95 bull
Mkt Cap $12.1B · PE N/A · 52W Low $19.00
CSCOCisco Systems
$78.00
USD & Fed Policy: -15 bear-15
-11% ATH+28% bull17x PE
AI Infrastructure Boom: +58 bull
Mkt Cap $309B · PE 17x · 52W Low $52.00
TXNTexas Instruments
$191.00
USD & Fed Policy: -15 bear-15
-17% ATH+44% bull24x PE
Global Trade Realignment: +65 bullAI Infrastructure Boom: +45 bullNew Trade Bloc Formation: +25 bull
Mkt Cap $174B · PE 24x · 52W Low $140.00
PWRQuanta Services
$559.00
USD & Fed Policy: -15 bear-15
-3% ATH+25% bull36x PE
Energy Grid Supercycle: +90 bull
Mkt Cap $83.6B · PE 36x · 52W Low $227.00
ROKRockwell Automation
$361.00
USD & Fed Policy: -15 bear-15
-18% ATH+39% bull26x PE
Global Trade Realignment: +60 bullNew Trade Bloc Formation: +45 bullAI Infrastructure Boom: +35 bullAI Workforce Disruption: +30 bull
Mkt Cap $40.6B · PE 26x · 52W Low $215.00

◆ Catalyst Calendar

HIGHMar 13RESOLVED: PCE core 3.1% (hot, up from 3.0%). 2Y yield 3.8%→4.4%. Rate cuts priced out through Q3. ENPH +3.45% despite hot PCE.
HIGHMar 12RESOLVED: 10Y 4.27% on oil $96. Jobless claims 213K (better). TLT -0.20%.
HIGHMar 17-18FOMC meeting + dot plot — 0 cuts vs 2 cuts. Market pricing 0 cuts after hot PCE. PPI same day (Mar 18).
HIGHMar 18PPI release — producer prices, energy cost pass-through. Same day as FOMC decision.
HIGHMay 2026Powell term as Chair expires — Warsh confirmation uncertain
HIGHJun 16-17FOMC meeting — earliest rate cut window, contingent on CPI + oil retreat

💡 Cross-Event Note

PCE hot confirms the usd_fed channel as the primary transmission mechanism: iran_conflict (oil $99) → usd_fed (PCE 3.1%, yields 4.285%, rate cuts priced out) → everything else. The surprise is ENPH +3.45% — solar rallying despite hot PCE because oil at $99 makes the energy alternatives thesis too compelling. This is the first time oil has overpowered rates for clean energy. FOMC (Mar 17-18) + GTC (Mar 16) + PPI (Mar 18) = maximum catalyst density. The week ahead determines the rest of Q1.