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XOMYahoo Finance ↗Exxon MobilEnergy

~$150PE: 18xMCap: $632B-4% from ATH

Market data via Yahoo Finance as of Feb 12, 2026· Analysis as of Feb 12, 2026

COMPOSITE

+20%

BULL UPSIDE

ENTRY QUALITY

55%

CONFIDENCE

ℹ️ How are these calculated?

COMPOSITE = Σ(event relevance × event probability) × entry quality / 100. Combines how much this stock benefits from macro events with how good the entry point is right now. For XOM: (5 × 85% + 85 × 60% + 0 × 35% + -10 × 55% + 35 × 0% + 20 × 0% + 0 × 0%) × 49/100 = 24. Higher is better. Range: typically 0–100.

BULL UPSIDE = (bull price target − current price) / current price. For XOM: ($180 − $150) / $150 = +20%. This is the maximum upside if the most optimistic analyst thesis plays out.

ENTRY QUALITY (0–100) = how attractive the current price is as a buy point. Based on: % below all-time high (-4%), upside to bull PT (+20%), forward PE (18x vs sector), and analyst conviction. Score: 49. Fair entry — modest discount or near-term headwinds.

CONFIDENCE = our overall conviction in the thesis (0–100%). Factors: strength of catalysts, analyst coverage quality, thesis durability, risk/reward skew.Moderate conviction — thesis is solid but risks are material.

$98~$150$157$180

52W LowATHBull PT

🎯 Investment Thesis

At ATH and up 24% in 2026 already — "$1 trillion club by 2030" narrative building. Stock has run PAST most analyst PTs: TD Cowen Buy $145, Barclays Overweight $145, BofA Neutral $135, Mizuho Neutral $140 — all below current $156. Only Wells Fargo Overweight $156 is at parity. The Iran conflict premium is fully baked in. Best-in-class operations with lowest major breakeven.

⚠️ Key Risk

Stock above all analyst consensus PTs — the market is ahead of the analysts. Wells Fargo lowered PT from $158 to $156. Any diplomatic breakthrough = sharp pullback to $130s. Energy transition long-term headwind. At 19x PE with -3% revenue growth, valuation assumes sustained conflict premium.