The US-Iran situation is at its most volatile point since the 2020 Soleimani strike. On February 6th, indirect nuclear talks resumed in Oman, but the diplomatic track is fragile — the talks nearly collapsed earlier when Middle Eastern leaders had to personally lobby the US not to walk away. The military track is escalating in parallel: the US shot down an Iranian drone approaching the USS Abraham Lincoln on February 4th, and Iranian gunboats made aggressive approaches toward a US-flagged tanker in the Strait of Hormuz.

President Trump told NBC that Iran's supreme leader "should be very worried," and intelligence analysts assess that the large buildup of military assets in the region suggests a strike is "more likely than not." Oil prices have been volatile — Brent crude swung between $66-72 based on the latest headline — while gold hit a record $5,110 before retreating to $4,700-4,900 on renewed talk hopes.

The aftermath of Israel's "12-Day War" against Iran's proxies has significantly weakened Iran's conventional deterrent. CSIS analysis concludes that the threshold for future military intervention has been "significantly lowered." The FY2026 US defense budget at $961.6B — including the $25B Golden Dome missile shield program — signals that Washington is preparing for sustained regional confrontation regardless of diplomatic outcomes.