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Geopolitical Instability

ACTIVEUpdated Mar 13, 2026

◆ What's Happening

**Day 14 (Mar 13) — Hormuz blockade sustained, oil approaching $100:**

**New Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei:** Vows to keep blocking Hormuz indefinitely. This eliminates any remaining de-escalation narrative. The blockade is now policy, not just military action.

**2 tankers caught fire in Iraqi waters:** 1 crew member killed. Attacks continue spreading geographically beyond the Strait into Iraqi and UAE waters. 20+ commercial vessels damaged since Feb 28.

**U.S. KC-135 tanker lost in Iraq:** Aircraft went down, crew safe. Pentagon says not hostile fire. But the incident highlights the scale and complexity of the military operation.

**Israel targeting Iranian nuclear scientists:** Covert operations escalating the shadow war dimension of the conflict.

**Treasury authorized Russian oil purchases:** Significant policy shift — U.S. allowing Russian oil imports to backfill Hormuz supply disruption. Pragmatism over sanctions.

**Oil at $99 WTI (+3.1%), Brent $103 (+2.7%):** WTI closing in on $100 psychological barrier. Brent above $103. The IEA 400M bbl release is clearly insufficient as attacks continue.

**SPY -0.57% ($666→$662):** Modest decline. Market digesting hot PCE data alongside continued conflict. Not the -1.52% panic of yesterday.

**BAH +1.50% ($77→$78):** Second consecutive green day for defense. Market repricing war duration higher.

**Casualty toll:** 1,444+ killed, 18,551 injured across the conflict zone.

**Ceasefire status:** No progress. No diplomatic channels active. Iran demands remain non-starters.

📈 Bull Case

SPY only -0.57% vs -1.52% yesterday — market stabilizing despite oil at $99. Defense names continuing to reprice higher (BAH +1.50%). Treasury authorizing Russian oil is pragmatic supply management. VIX 27.19 elevated but not panic. Market has priced in sustained conflict. If Hormuz de-escalates even partially, oil drops $10-15 rapidly.

📉 Bear Case

Oil at $99 WTI with Brent above $103 — next stop $110+. Mojtaba Khamenei vowing indefinite blockade means no end in sight. 1,444+ killed and rising. Tanker fires in Iraqi waters show geographic expansion continues. Israeli targeting of nuclear scientists could provoke Iranian retaliation beyond Hormuz. PCE core 3.1% (hot) + oil at $99 = FOMC trapped. March CPI will be significantly elevated.

◆ Geopolitical Exposure

19 stocks across 4 categories. Tap a category to expand.

LMTLockheed Martin
$646.00
Geopolitical Instability: +95 bull+95
-7% ATH+24% bull20x PE
US Debt & Spending Crisis: +80 bullGlobal Trade Realignment: +25 bull
Mkt Cap $149B · PE 20x · 52W Low $410.00
RTXRTX Corporation
$205.00
Geopolitical Instability: +92 bull+92
-5% ATH+27% bull27x PE
US Debt & Spending Crisis: +75 bullGlobal Trade Realignment: +25 bull
Mkt Cap $275B · PE 27x · 52W Low $112.00
PLTRPalantir
$151.00
Geopolitical Instability: +78 bull+78
-27% ATH+72% bull82x PE
AI Workforce Disruption: +75 bullAI Infrastructure Boom: +62 bullUS Debt & Spending Crisis: +55 bullGlobal Trade Realignment: +25 bullNew Trade Bloc Formation: +25 bull
Mkt Cap $361B · PE 82x · 52W Low $66.00
BAHBooz Allen Hamilton
$78.00
Geopolitical Instability: +50 bull+50
-40% ATH+67% bull12x PE
US Debt & Spending Crisis: +90 bullAI Infrastructure Boom: +35 bullAI Workforce Disruption: -35 bear
Mkt Cap $9.6B · PE 12x · 52W Low $74.00
APHAmphenol
$134.00
Geopolitical Instability: +20 bull+20
-20% ATH+57% bull26x PE
AI Infrastructure Boom: +68 bull
Mkt Cap $165B · PE 26x · 52W Low $56.00
MPMP Materials
$57.00
Geopolitical Instability: +20 bull+20
-43% ATH+65% bull45x PE
Global Trade Realignment: +85 bullUS Debt & Spending Crisis: +50 bullNew Trade Bloc Formation: +40 bull
Mkt Cap $10.2B · PE 45x · 52W Low $19.00
HONHoneywell International
$235.00
Geopolitical Instability: +20 bull+20
-5% ATH+28% bull20x PE
Energy Grid Supercycle: +40 bullGlobal Trade Realignment: +35 bullAI Infrastructure Boom: +25 bullNew Trade Bloc Formation: +25 bull
Mkt Cap $149B · PE 20x · 52W Low $169.00
IONQIonQ
$33.00
Geopolitical Instability: +15 bull+15
-61% ATH+173% bullN/A PE
Quantum Computing Breakout: +95 bull
Mkt Cap $12.1B · PE N/A · 52W Low $19.00
TTMITTM Technologies
$91.00
Geopolitical Instability: +15 bull+15
-19% ATH+48% bull20x PE
AI Infrastructure Boom: +72 bull
Mkt Cap $9.4B · PE 20x · 52W Low $16.00
NUENucor Corporation
$163.00
Geopolitical Instability: +15 bull+15
-17% ATH+41% bull12x PE
Global Trade Realignment: +65 bullAI Infrastructure Boom: +40 bullNew Trade Bloc Formation: +40 bullEnergy Grid Supercycle: +35 bullUS Debt & Spending Crisis: +30 bull
Mkt Cap $37.4B · PE 12x · 52W Low $98.00
PANWPalo Alto Networks
$167.00
Geopolitical Instability: +70 bull+70
-25% ATH+50% bull42x PE
AI Infrastructure Boom: +35 bullUS Debt & Spending Crisis: +30 bullEnergy Grid Supercycle: +25 bull
Mkt Cap $136B · PE 42x · 52W Low $140.00
XOMExxon Mobil
$156.00
Geopolitical Instability: +85 bull+85
-2% ATH+19% bull18x PE
USD & Fed Policy: +35 bull
Mkt Cap $651B · PE 18x · 52W Low $98.00
CEGConstellation Energy
$302.00
Geopolitical Instability: +45 bull+45
-27% ATH+52% bull22x PE
Energy Grid Supercycle: +95 bullAI Infrastructure Boom: +70 bullUS Debt & Spending Crisis: +25 bull
Mkt Cap $109B · PE 22x · 52W Low $161.00
SMRNuScale Power
$12.00
Geopolitical Instability: +30 bull+30
-79% ATH+192% bullN/A PE
Energy Grid Supercycle: +70 bullUS Debt & Spending Crisis: +25 bull
Mkt Cap $3.8B · PE N/A · 52W Low $11.00
VSTVistra Corp
$159.00
Geopolitical Instability: +25 bull+25
-28% ATH+45% bull14x PE
Energy Grid Supercycle: +90 bullAI Infrastructure Boom: +78 bull
Mkt Cap $53.9B · PE 14x · 52W Low $91.00
GEVGE Vernova
$805.00
Geopolitical Instability: +20 bull+20
-10% ATH+37% bull35x PE
Energy Grid Supercycle: +95 bullAI Infrastructure Boom: +35 bull
Mkt Cap $218B · PE 35x · 52W Low $252.00
GSGoldman Sachs
$782.00
Geopolitical Instability: +15 bull+15
-21% ATH+41% bull12x PE
USD & Fed Policy: +80 bullUS Debt & Spending Crisis: +25 bullAI Workforce Disruption: +25 bull
Mkt Cap $235B · PE 12x · 52W Low $439.00
GLDSPDR Gold Trust
$461.00
Geopolitical Instability: +95 bull+95
-10% ATH+27% bullN/A PE
USD & Fed Policy: +60 bullUS Debt & Spending Crisis: +55 bullNew Trade Bloc Formation: +32 bull
Mkt Cap ETF · PE N/A · 52W Low $273.00
NEMNewmont Corporation
$110.00
Geopolitical Instability: +35 bull+35
-19% ATH+59% bull10x PE
US Debt & Spending Crisis: +75 bullUSD & Fed Policy: +70 bull
Mkt Cap $120B · PE 10x · 52W Low $43.00

🛡️ At Risk — negative exposure to this event

TSMTaiwan Semiconductor
$338.00
Geopolitical Instability: -50 bear-50
-13% ATH+54% bull19x PE
AI Infrastructure Boom: +95 bullGlobal Trade Realignment: -30 bearNew Trade Bloc Formation: +30 bull
Mkt Cap $1.8T · PE 19x · 52W Low $134.00
INODInnodata
$43.00
Geopolitical Instability: -20 bear-20
-54% ATH+63% bull24x PE
AI Infrastructure Boom: +50 bullAI Workforce Disruption: +50 bull
Mkt Cap $1.4B · PE 24x · 52W Low $26.00
ARMArm Holdings
$116.00
Geopolitical Instability: -20 bear-20
-38% ATH+98% bull54x PE
AI Infrastructure Boom: +78 bullNew Trade Bloc Formation: +25 bullUSD & Fed Policy: -25 bear
Mkt Cap $123B · PE 54x · 52W Low $80.00
QCOMQualcomm
$130.00
Geopolitical Instability: -20 bear-20
-38% ATH+69% bull12x PE
Global Trade Realignment: -55 bearNew Trade Bloc Formation: -35 bearAI Infrastructure Boom: +30 bull
Mkt Cap $139B · PE 12x · 52W Low $121.00
NVDANVIDIA Corporation
$180.00
Geopolitical Instability: -15 bear-15
-15% ATH+56% bull17x PE
AI Infrastructure Boom: +98 bullAI Workforce Disruption: +30 bullGlobal Trade Realignment: -25 bear
Mkt Cap $4.4T · PE 17x · 52W Low $87.00
AAPLApple
$250.00
Geopolitical Instability: -15 bear-15
-13% ATH+40% bull27x PE
Global Trade Realignment: -70 bearNew Trade Bloc Formation: -30 bearAI Infrastructure Boom: +25 bull
Mkt Cap $3.7T · PE 27x · 52W Low $169.00

◆ Catalyst Calendar

HIGHMar 13RESOLVED: Day 14 — Khamenei vows indefinite blockade, 2 tankers hit, KC-135 lost, Treasury authorized Russian oil. WTI $99, Brent $103.
HIGHMar 12RESOLVED: Day 13 — 3 more ships struck (Iraq + UAE waters), explosive boats, 19+ total. WTI +10% to $96, Brent $100.
HIGHMar 11RESOLVED: Day 12 — Hormuz vessel strikes (Express Rome, Mayuree Naree), WTI +6.4% to $93, IEA 400M bbl release.
HIGHOngoingStrait of Hormuz active disruption — 20+ vessels struck, attacks expanding to Iraqi/UAE waters
HIGHOngoingRussia-Iran intelligence sharing — proxy war dynamic
HIGHApr 21Lockheed Martin (LMT) Q1 earnings — wartime procurement visibility
MEDIUMMid-2026BRICS Summit (India) — geopolitical realignment post-Iran

💡 Cross-Event Note

Oil at $99 is the critical cross-event connector: iran_conflict (Hormuz blockade, 20+ ships) → global_trade (shipping costs, insurance) → usd_fed (PCE hot 3.1%, yields 4.285%) → energy_grid (alternatives urgency at $99 oil) → us_fiscal (war costs + deficit financing). Treasury authorizing Russian oil links geopolitics to trade policy. FOMC (Mar 17-18) must weigh hot PCE + $99 oil vs employment weakness. GTC Monday creates a brief respite catalyst.