ℹ️ How are these calculated?
🎯 Investment Thesis
Down 34% from ATH ($413→$273) and 26% YTD — creating a compelling re-entry opportunity. Analyst conviction remains strong: Wells Fargo Overweight $460, TD Cowen Buy $440, UBS Buy $420, JP Morgan Overweight $410. That's 50-68% upside to analyst PTs. "Better utility stock: CEG vs VST?" — the pullback makes CEG the better value of the nuclear pair.
⚠️ Key Risk
Citi Neutral $368 is the cautious voice — even they see 35% upside. 20% monthly decline suggests momentum selling could continue short-term. TMI restart 2028+ timeline is execution risk. 24x PE is still premium for a utility. Regulatory changes could cap upside.
By The Numbers
Event Impact
Largest US nuclear fleet. MSFT TMI restart deal for AI power. Derivative play — power not silicon.
Nuclear benefits from energy security concerns and fossil disruption.
No quantum relevance.
Domestic nuclear utility — no China exposure.
Capital-intensive utility with $8.5B debt. Higher rates increase financing costs for TMI restart and capacity expansion.
Largest US nuclear fleet (23 reactors, 14 facilities). TMI/Crane restart 2027 with MSFT 20-year PPA. Nuclear PTC preserved in OBBBA. Anchor of the nuclear renaissance.
$1B DOE loan for TMI restart. Benefits from government clean energy support. Nuclear PTC preservation in OBBBA is direct fiscal tailwind.
Price Targets
Upcoming Catalysts
Competitive Landscape
Cheaper at 17x PE but smaller nuclear fleet
Company Background
Spun off from Exelon 2022. America's largest nuclear operator with 23 reactors across 14 facilities. MSFT TMI deal made them poster child for nuclear AI renaissance.