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US Debt & Spending Crisis

ACTIVEUpdated Mar 13, 2026

◆ What's Happening

Trading Day 10 (Mar 13) — defense holding gains, PCE worsens fiscal outlook:

**Defense stocks holding gains:** - BAH +1.50% ($77→$78) — second consecutive green day. At 12x fwdPE, market is repricing war duration higher. Day 14 of Hormuz with Khamenei vowing indefinite blockade eliminates the "war ending soon" narrative. - RTX +0.99% ($203→$205) — defense systems manufacturer also repricing higher. - LMT -1.08% ($653→$646) — slight pullback after yesterday's bounce. Normal consolidation. - PLTR -1.66% ($154→$151) — gave back yesterday's gains with broader market softness.

**PCE worsens the fiscal outlook:** - Core PCE 3.1% (hot, up from 3.0%) → 2Y yield surged to 4.4% - 10Y at 4.285% — deficit financing costs at multi-week high - Rate cuts priced out through Q3 2026 → Treasury auctions more expensive - Oil at $99 heading toward $100 → March/April CPI will be even worse → yields stay elevated - The interest-cost-on-debt spiral: higher rates → more interest → larger deficit → more Treasury supply → even higher rates

**War costs reality:** Day 14, 20+ ships struck, KC-135 tanker lost, 1,444+ killed. Sustained military intensity at peak levels costs billions daily. Supplemental defense appropriations inevitable.

**FY2026 deficit:** $602B through January. CBO $1.9T estimate will be exceeded with war supplemental + elevated interest costs.

**Treasury authorizing Russian oil:** Pragmatic but adds fiscal complexity — sanctions enforcement costs vs energy price stability trade-off.

📈 Bull Case

BAH at $78 (+1.50%, 2nd green day) confirms defense repricing. At 12x fwdPE, BAH remains deep value. War supplemental spending creates budget certainty for defense contractors. Employment holding (claims 213K) means tax revenue stable. FOMC (Mar 17-18) may maintain 2 cuts, which would help deficit financing costs.

📉 Bear Case

PCE core 3.1% + oil $99 = deficit financing nightmare. 10Y 4.285% and 2Y 4.4% mean every Treasury auction is more expensive. If FOMC signals 0 cuts, yields stay elevated → interest costs accelerate → deficit widens further. FY2026 deficit tracking well above $1.9T. Government shutdown continues with no resolution. War costs + interest costs + IEEPA refunds in litigation = fiscal trajectory unsustainable.

◆ Fiscal Exposure

38 stocks across 4 categories. Tap a category to expand.

BAHBooz Allen Hamilton
$78.00
US Debt & Spending Crisis: +90 bull+90
-40% ATH+67% bull12x PE
Geopolitical Instability: +50 bullAI Infrastructure Boom: +35 bullAI Workforce Disruption: -35 bear
Mkt Cap $9.6B · PE 12x · 52W Low $74.00
LMTLockheed Martin
$646.00
US Debt & Spending Crisis: +80 bull+80
-7% ATH+24% bull20x PE
Geopolitical Instability: +95 bullGlobal Trade Realignment: +25 bull
Mkt Cap $149B · PE 20x · 52W Low $410.00
RTXRTX Corporation
$205.00
US Debt & Spending Crisis: +75 bull+75
-5% ATH+27% bull27x PE
Geopolitical Instability: +92 bullGlobal Trade Realignment: +25 bull
Mkt Cap $275B · PE 27x · 52W Low $112.00
PLTRPalantir
$151.00
US Debt & Spending Crisis: +55 bull+55
-27% ATH+72% bull82x PE
Geopolitical Instability: +78 bullAI Workforce Disruption: +75 bullAI Infrastructure Boom: +62 bullGlobal Trade Realignment: +25 bullNew Trade Bloc Formation: +25 bull
Mkt Cap $361B · PE 82x · 52W Low $66.00
MPMP Materials
$57.00
US Debt & Spending Crisis: +50 bull+50
-43% ATH+65% bull45x PE
Global Trade Realignment: +85 bullNew Trade Bloc Formation: +40 bull
Mkt Cap $10.2B · PE 45x · 52W Low $19.00
INTCIntel
$46.00
US Debt & Spending Crisis: +35 bull+35
-16% ATH+55% bull46x PE
Global Trade Realignment: +80 bullAI Infrastructure Boom: +40 bullNew Trade Bloc Formation: +35 bullUSD & Fed Policy: -25 bear
Mkt Cap $229B · PE 46x · 52W Low $18.00
GFSGlobalFoundries
$42.00
US Debt & Spending Crisis: +30 bull+30
-24% ATH+55% bull18x PE
Global Trade Realignment: +75 bullAI Infrastructure Boom: +30 bullNew Trade Bloc Formation: +30 bull
Mkt Cap $23.3B · PE 18x · 52W Low $30.00
PANWPalo Alto Networks
$167.00
US Debt & Spending Crisis: +30 bull+30
-25% ATH+50% bull42x PE
Geopolitical Instability: +70 bullAI Infrastructure Boom: +35 bullEnergy Grid Supercycle: +25 bull
Mkt Cap $136B · PE 42x · 52W Low $140.00
SMRNuScale Power
$12.00
US Debt & Spending Crisis: +25 bull+25
-79% ATH+192% bullN/A PE
Energy Grid Supercycle: +70 bullGeopolitical Instability: +30 bull
Mkt Cap $3.8B · PE N/A · 52W Low $11.00
CSCOCisco Systems
$78.00
US Debt & Spending Crisis: +20 bull+20
-11% ATH+28% bull17x PE
AI Infrastructure Boom: +58 bull
Mkt Cap $309B · PE 17x · 52W Low $52.00
TSMTaiwan Semiconductor
$338.00
US Debt & Spending Crisis: +20 bull+20
-13% ATH+54% bull19x PE
AI Infrastructure Boom: +95 bullGeopolitical Instability: -50 bearGlobal Trade Realignment: -30 bearNew Trade Bloc Formation: +30 bull
Mkt Cap $1.8T · PE 19x · 52W Low $134.00
TXNTexas Instruments
$191.00
US Debt & Spending Crisis: +20 bull+20
-17% ATH+44% bull24x PE
Global Trade Realignment: +65 bullAI Infrastructure Boom: +45 bullNew Trade Bloc Formation: +25 bull
Mkt Cap $174B · PE 24x · 52W Low $140.00
OKLOOklo Inc
$58.00
US Debt & Spending Crisis: +20 bull+20
-70% ATH+107% bullN/A PE
Energy Grid Supercycle: +65 bull
Mkt Cap $9.1B · PE N/A · 52W Low $17.00
IONQIonQ
$33.00
US Debt & Spending Crisis: +15 bull+15
-61% ATH+173% bullN/A PE
Quantum Computing Breakout: +95 bull
Mkt Cap $12.1B · PE N/A · 52W Low $19.00
TTMITTM Technologies
$91.00
US Debt & Spending Crisis: +15 bull+15
-19% ATH+48% bull20x PE
AI Infrastructure Boom: +72 bull
Mkt Cap $9.4B · PE 20x · 52W Low $16.00
DELLDell Technologies
$152.00
US Debt & Spending Crisis: +15 bull+15
-13% ATH+18% bull11x PE
AI Infrastructure Boom: +82 bull
Mkt Cap $102B · PE 11x · 52W Low $66.00
RGTIRigetti Computing
$16.00
US Debt & Spending Crisis: +10 bull+10
-72% ATH+244% bullN/A PE
Quantum Computing Breakout: +90 bull
Mkt Cap $5.4B · PE N/A · 52W Low $7.00
NEMNewmont Corporation
$110.00
US Debt & Spending Crisis: +75 bull+75
-19% ATH+59% bull10x PE
USD & Fed Policy: +70 bullGeopolitical Instability: +35 bull
Mkt Cap $120B · PE 10x · 52W Low $43.00
JPMJPMorgan Chase
$283.00
US Debt & Spending Crisis: +35 bull+35
-16% ATH+41% bull12x PE
USD & Fed Policy: +85 bull
Mkt Cap $764B · PE 12x · 52W Low $202.00
GSGoldman Sachs
$782.00
US Debt & Spending Crisis: +25 bull+25
-21% ATH+41% bull12x PE
USD & Fed Policy: +80 bullAI Workforce Disruption: +25 bull
Mkt Cap $235B · PE 12x · 52W Low $439.00
BXBlackstone
$107.00
US Debt & Spending Crisis: +20 bull+20
-44% ATH+87% bull13x PE
USD & Fed Policy: +60 bull
Mkt Cap $131B · PE 13x · 52W Low $102.00
GLDSPDR Gold Trust
$461.00
US Debt & Spending Crisis: +55 bull+55
-10% ATH+27% bullN/A PE
Geopolitical Instability: +95 bullUSD & Fed Policy: +60 bullNew Trade Bloc Formation: +32 bull
Mkt Cap ETF · PE N/A · 52W Low $273.00
FSLRFirst Solar
$196.00
US Debt & Spending Crisis: +40 bull+40
-31% ATH+63% bull8x PE
Energy Grid Supercycle: +80 bullGlobal Trade Realignment: +55 bull
Mkt Cap $21B · PE 8x · 52W Low $117.00
NUENucor Corporation
$163.00
US Debt & Spending Crisis: +30 bull+30
-17% ATH+41% bull12x PE
Global Trade Realignment: +65 bullAI Infrastructure Boom: +40 bullNew Trade Bloc Formation: +40 bullEnergy Grid Supercycle: +35 bull
Mkt Cap $37.4B · PE 12x · 52W Low $98.00
NEENextEra Energy
$93.00
US Debt & Spending Crisis: +30 bull+30
-3% ATH+19% bull21x PE
Energy Grid Supercycle: +85 bullUSD & Fed Policy: -25 bear
Mkt Cap $193B · PE 21x · 52W Low $62.00
CATCaterpillar
$694.00
US Debt & Spending Crisis: +30 bull+30
-12% ATH+27% bull25x PE
Global Trade Realignment: +55 bullEnergy Grid Supercycle: +40 bullNew Trade Bloc Formation: +30 bullUSD & Fed Policy: +30 bull
Mkt Cap $325B · PE 25x · 52W Low $267.00
WMWaste Management
$239.00
US Debt & Spending Crisis: +30 bull+30
-4% ATH+19% bull25x PE
Global Trade Realignment: +35 bull
Mkt Cap $96.2B · PE 25x · 52W Low $194.00
ENPHEnphase Energy
$44.00
US Debt & Spending Crisis: +25 bull+25
-38% ATH+82% bull16x PE
Energy Grid Supercycle: +55 bullUSD & Fed Policy: -25 bear
Mkt Cap $5.8B · PE 16x · 52W Low $26.00
CEGConstellation Energy
$302.00
US Debt & Spending Crisis: +25 bull+25
-27% ATH+52% bull22x PE
Energy Grid Supercycle: +95 bullAI Infrastructure Boom: +70 bullGeopolitical Instability: +45 bull
Mkt Cap $109B · PE 22x · 52W Low $161.00
PWRQuanta Services
$559.00
US Debt & Spending Crisis: +20 bull+20
-3% ATH+25% bull36x PE
Energy Grid Supercycle: +90 bull
Mkt Cap $83.6B · PE 36x · 52W Low $227.00
GMGeneral Motors
$72.00
US Debt & Spending Crisis: +15 bull+15
-18% ATH+67% bull5x PE
Global Trade Realignment: +50 bullNew Trade Bloc Formation: +45 bull
Mkt Cap $67.5B · PE 5x · 52W Low $42.00

📋 Also Impacted — scored for this event but uncategorized

VSTVistra Corp
$159.00
US Debt & Spending Crisis: +15 bull+15
-28% ATH+45% bull14x PE
Energy Grid Supercycle: +90 bullAI Infrastructure Boom: +78 bullGeopolitical Instability: +25 bull
Mkt Cap $53.9B · PE 14x · 52W Low $91.00
APHAmphenol
$134.00
US Debt & Spending Crisis: +15 bull+15
-20% ATH+57% bull26x PE
AI Infrastructure Boom: +68 bull
Mkt Cap $165B · PE 26x · 52W Low $56.00
HONHoneywell International
$235.00
US Debt & Spending Crisis: +20 bull+20
-5% ATH+28% bull20x PE
Energy Grid Supercycle: +40 bullGlobal Trade Realignment: +35 bullAI Infrastructure Boom: +25 bullNew Trade Bloc Formation: +25 bull
Mkt Cap $149B · PE 20x · 52W Low $169.00
GEVGE Vernova
$805.00
US Debt & Spending Crisis: +20 bull+20
-10% ATH+37% bull35x PE
Energy Grid Supercycle: +95 bullAI Infrastructure Boom: +35 bull
Mkt Cap $218B · PE 35x · 52W Low $252.00
ROKRockwell Automation
$361.00
US Debt & Spending Crisis: +15 bull+15
-18% ATH+39% bull26x PE
Global Trade Realignment: +60 bullNew Trade Bloc Formation: +45 bullAI Infrastructure Boom: +35 bullAI Workforce Disruption: +30 bull
Mkt Cap $40.6B · PE 26x · 52W Low $215.00
BEBloom Energy
$155.00
US Debt & Spending Crisis: +15 bull+15
-14% ATH+42% bull53x PE
Energy Grid Supercycle: +80 bullAI Infrastructure Boom: +75 bullUSD & Fed Policy: -30 bear
Mkt Cap $43.3B · PE 53x · 52W Low $15.00
PLDPrologis
$132.00
US Debt & Spending Crisis: +15 bull+15
-8% ATH+19% bull39x PE
Global Trade Realignment: +50 bullNew Trade Bloc Formation: +40 bull
Mkt Cap $122B · PE 39x · 52W Low $85.00

🛡️ At Risk — negative exposure to this event

TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
$87.00
US Debt & Spending Crisis: -30 bear-30
-7% ATH+25% bullN/A PE
USD & Fed Policy: +85 bullNew Trade Bloc Formation: -25 bear
Mkt Cap ETF · PE N/A · 52W Low $83.00
ACNAccenture plc
$197.00
US Debt & Spending Crisis: -20 bear-20
-50% ATH+78% bull13x PE
New Trade Bloc Formation: +23 bull
Mkt Cap $122B · PE 13x · 52W Low $189.00

◆ Catalyst Calendar

HIGHMar 13RESOLVED: BAH +1.50% (2nd green day). PCE core 3.1% (hot). 10Y 4.285%, 2Y 4.4%. Oil $99. Day 14 Hormuz.
HIGHMar 12RESOLVED: Defense bounce — BAH +1.54%, LMT +0.52%, PLTR +1.25%. 10Y 4.27% on oil $96. Day 13.
HIGHMar 17-18FOMC meeting — rate path determines deficit financing trajectory
MEDIUMMar 18PPI release — energy producer costs, same day as FOMC decision
HIGHApr 2Canada USMCA/auto tariff exemption expiration — revenue uncertainty
HIGHJul 2026Section 122 tariff expiration — Congress must extend or tariff revenue drops to zero
HIGHOngoingSecond partial government shutdown (began Feb 14) — complicated by military operations
HIGHOngoingSupplemental defense appropriations — emergency military funding expected
MEDIUMOngoing$1T+ annual interest costs — largest federal budget line item

💡 Cross-Event Note

PCE hot (usd_fed) → higher yields → more expensive deficit financing (us_fiscal). Defense repricing (BAH +1.50%) confirms market sees protracted war (iran_conflict). Oil at $99 (iran_conflict) → higher CPI → higher yields → worse deficit. FOMC (Mar 17-18) is THE fiscal inflection: 0 cuts = sustained high financing costs, 2 cuts = fiscal relief but inflation risk. PPI (Mar 18) same day as FOMC decision.