ℹ️ How are these calculated?
🎯 Investment Thesis
Most polarizing stock in our universe — Wedbush $600 and Cantor $510 vs Wells Fargo $125. Morgan Stanley lowered to $415 (Equal-Weight) — the neutral camp is cautious. New catalyst: Morgan Stanley sees $190B upside in Tesla's solar/energy business if 100 GW/yr manufacturing target is hit. Cathie Wood continues buying. On a 4-day winning streak into Feb 12.
⚠️ Key Risk
Wells Fargo Underweight $125 implies 70% downside — the most extreme bear case in our universe. At 151x forward PE, priced for perfection across EV, robotaxi, energy, AND AI. China retaliatory tariffs would directly hit Shanghai (largest factory). Musk's DOGE political role creates brand risk globally.
By The Numbers
Event Impact
FSD and Dojo AI compute. Not an infra supplier.
No defense or energy exposure.
No quantum relevance.
Shanghai Gigafactory is largest facility. China EV competition intensifying (BYD). Retaliation risk.
At 152x PE, most rate-sensitive large-cap in our universe. Higher rates crush speculative growth multiples. Auto loans sensitive to interest rates. Musk/DOGE political ties add complexity.
Megapack battery storage business growing rapidly. Morgan Stanley sees $190B upside in Tesla solar/energy if 100 GW/yr target hit. Grid storage is a real business, not just narrative.
OBBBA ended EV credits Sept 2025. Musk/DOGE political association creates brand risk and regulatory uncertainty. Government fleet contracts possible but politically charged.
Price Targets
Upcoming Catalysts
Competitive Landscape
Chinese EV leader, rapidly gaining global share
Company Background
Founded 2003 by Eberhard and Tarpenning, with Musk as early investor/chairman. Transformed auto industry toward EVs. Shanghai Gigafactory opened 2019, now largest Tesla facility.