ℹ️ How are these calculated?
🎯 Investment Thesis
TSMC manufactures virtually every leading-edge AI chip in the world. Just hit record monthly revenue driven by surging AI chip demand, with major capex increase directed at advanced AI processes. At 21x forward PE for a monopoly growing 34%+, arguably the most important company in AI. Barclays raised PT to $450, Needham to $410. Near ATH at 1% below ($380) — Taiwan is resisting US pressure to shift more manufacturing offshore, reinforcing TSMC's leverage.
⚠️ Key Risk
China-Taiwan geopolitical risk is existential — a conflict would halt global chip supply. At ATH (1% below $380) — essentially no margin of safety. TD Cowen only Hold ($370). Arizona fabs years away from meaningful production. Massive capex surge creates margin pressure. Customer concentration in NVIDIA/Apple.
By The Numbers
Event Impact
Manufactures every advanced AI chip — NVIDIA, AMD, Broadcom, Apple all depend on TSMC. Monopoly on leading-edge nodes.
Geopolitical risk if Taiwan Strait tensions rise.
Will likely manufacture quantum chip components.
THE geopolitical risk stock. China-Taiwan tensions directly threaten operations.
International revenue benefits from weaker dollar. At 21x PE, moderate sensitivity. $55B cash buffer. Semiconductor demand is structural, not rate-driven.
New fabs (Arizona, Japan) are massive power consumers. TSMC itself drives grid demand but is a consumer, not provider.
CHIPS Act beneficiary — $6.6B+ in US subsidies for Arizona fabs. Strategic national security asset. Government has strong interest in TSMC US operations succeeding.
Price Targets
Upcoming Catalysts
Competitive Landscape
Catching up on 3nm but yields lag TSMC
Attempting foundry comeback but years behind
Company Background
Founded 1987 by Morris Chang. Invented the pure-play foundry model. Now the most critical single company in the global semiconductor supply chain.