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VSTYahoo Finance ↗Vistra CorpNuclear Power

~$163PE: 18xMCap: $55.3B-26% from ATH

Market data via Yahoo Finance as of Feb 12, 2026· Analysis as of Feb 11, 2026

COMPOSITE

+41%

BULL UPSIDE

ENTRY QUALITY

68%

CONFIDENCE

ℹ️ How are these calculated?

COMPOSITE = Σ(event relevance × event probability) × entry quality / 100. Combines how much this stock benefits from macro events with how good the entry point is right now. For VST: (78 × 85% + 25 × 60% + 0 × 35% + 0 × 55% + -15 × 0% + 90 × 0% + 10 × 0%) × 58/100 = 47. Higher is better. Range: typically 0–100.

BULL UPSIDE = (bull price target − current price) / current price. For VST: ($230 − $163) / $163 = +41%. This is the maximum upside if the most optimistic analyst thesis plays out.

ENTRY QUALITY (0–100) = how attractive the current price is as a buy point. Based on: % below all-time high (-26%), upside to bull PT (+41%), forward PE (18x vs sector), and analyst conviction. Score: 58. Fair entry — modest discount or near-term headwinds.

CONFIDENCE = our overall conviction in the thesis (0–100%). Factors: strength of catalysts, analyst coverage quality, thesis durability, risk/reward skew.Moderate conviction — thesis is solid but risks are material.

$91~$163$220$230

52W LowATHBull PT

🎯 Investment Thesis

Nuclear power play at 17x PE while CEG at 24x+. Meta PPA for 2,600MW validates AI-power thesis. Jefferies just upgraded to Buy ($203), Goldman Sachs bullish, over 90% of analysts Buy with consensus PT $232 implying 45% upside. Q4 earnings Feb 11 confirmed — Scotiabank PT $293 is the high-water mark. Cogentrix adds gas capacity. Diversified generation hedges regulatory risk.

⚠️ Key Risk

27% below ATH ($220) — has underperformed nuclear peers over past 90 days. PJM regulatory intervention could cap prices. Wholesale electricity price swings create volatility. Trailing PE of 57x reflects earnings lumpiness.