ℹ️ How are these calculated?
🎯 Investment Thesis
GAME-CHANGER: DoD just invested $400M, making the US government MP's largest shareholder with a 10-year magnet offtake agreement. Project Vault ($12B critical minerals reserve) positions MP as the cornerstone of US rare earth independence. Morgan Stanley upgraded to Overweight $71, BMO upgraded to Outperform $75, Goldman initiated Buy $77, DA Davidson Buy $82. Up 224% in 2025 but the government backing fundamentally de-risks the thesis.
⚠️ Key Risk
104x forward PE assumes massive downstream revenue ramp that hasn't happened yet. Stock up 224% in 2025 — momentum-driven. China could flood market to destroy economics. Transition from mining to processing/magnets is operationally complex. 41% below ATH but still expensive on fundamentals.
By The Numbers
Event Impact
Rare earth magnets in some DC cooling/power systems.
Defense magnet supply chain — DoD just became largest shareholder with 10-year offtake.
Rare earth elements used in some quantum components.
DoD investment + Project Vault ($12B) makes MP central to US critical minerals strategy. THE hedge against China.
Commodity-linked — rare earth prices benefit from weaker dollar. Mining operations have some rate sensitivity on capex.
Rare earth magnets critical for wind turbines and EV motors. Grid electrification increases permanent magnet demand.
DoD $400M investment, government largest shareholder. Project Vault ($12B) is direct fiscal commitment. National security designation protects from DOGE cuts.
Price Targets
Upcoming Catalysts
Competitive Landscape
Only other major non-Chinese producer (Australian)
Company Background
Mountain Pass was world's largest rare earth mine before Chinese undercut it. MP acquired it from bankruptcy in 2017, rebuilding US rare earth independence.