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LMTYahoo Finance ↗Lockheed MartinDefense
~$637PE: 20xMCap: $148B-2% from ATH
Market data via Yahoo Finance as of Feb 12, 2026· Analysis as of Feb 12, 2026
36
COMPOSITE
+26%
BULL UPSIDE
46
ENTRY QUALITY
72%
CONFIDENCE
ℹ️ How are these calculated?
COMPOSITE = Σ(event relevance × event probability) × entry quality / 100. Combines how much this stock benefits from macro events with how good the entry point is right now. For LMT: (10 × 85% + 95 × 60% + 5 × 35% + 20 × 55% + -10 × 0% + 0 × 0% + 80 × 0%) × 46/100 = 36. Higher is better. Range: typically 0–100.
BULL UPSIDE = (bull price target − current price) / current price. For LMT: ($800 − $637) / $637 = +26%. This is the maximum upside if the most optimistic analyst thesis plays out.
ENTRY QUALITY (0–100) = how attractive the current price is as a buy point. Based on: % below all-time high (-2%), upside to bull PT (+26%), forward PE (20x vs sector), and analyst conviction. Score: 46. Fair entry — modest discount or near-term headwinds.
CONFIDENCE = our overall conviction in the thesis (0–100%). Factors: strength of catalysts, analyst coverage quality, thesis durability, risk/reward skew.High conviction — strong catalysts and clear thesis.
$410~$637$647$800
52W LowATHBull PT

🎯 Investment Thesis

$194B backlog, largest in defense history. All 5 analysts just raised PTs (Feb 2-5): Citi $673, TD Cowen $670, UBS $663, Jefferies $630. Up 26%+ in 2026 already — one of the hottest "dividend stocks" this year. Goldman Sachs is the lone Sell ($517) but even they raised their PT. Defense premium is earned, not speculative.

⚠️ Key Risk

Goldman Sell at $517 implies 18% downside — they see the defense premium as overdone. Analyst consensus is unanimously Hold/Neutral (except Goldman Sell) — nobody is bullish enough to rate Buy. At $628, only 3% below ATH. White House restricting defense CEO pay/buybacks. Diplomatic breakthrough = sharp pullback.

By The Numbers

Price
$637
ATH
$647
52W Low
$410
Fwd PE
20x
Market Cap
$148B
Revenue
$71.3B
Rev Growth
+5% YoY
Gross Margin
13.2%
Op Margin
12.8%
FCF
$6.9B
Cash
$2.5B
Debt
$19.2B

Event Impact

Price Targets

Current
$637
Bear PT
$480
Consensus
$658
Bull PT
$800

Upcoming Catalysts

HIGHFeb 2-5All 5 analysts raised PTs post-Q4 earnings
HIGHApr 21Q1 2026 earnings — backlog + F-35 delivery

Competitive Landscape

RTXRTX Corporation

Broader with commercial aerospace; LMT more pure defense

Company Background

World's largest defense contractor. F-35, THAAD, Aegis, Trident. Formed 1995 from Lockheed + Martin Marietta merger.