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GLDYahoo Finance ↗SPDR Gold TrustSafe Haven

~$451PE: N/AMCap: ETF-12% from ATH

Market data via Yahoo Finance as of Feb 12, 2026· Analysis as of Feb 11, 2026

COMPOSITE

+22%

BULL UPSIDE

ENTRY QUALITY

55%

CONFIDENCE

ℹ️ How are these calculated?

COMPOSITE = Σ(event relevance × event probability) × entry quality / 100. Combines how much this stock benefits from macro events with how good the entry point is right now. For GLD: (-10 × 85% + 90 × 60% + 0 × 35% + 15 × 55% + 60 × 0% + 0 × 0% + 45 × 0%) × 12/100 = 6. Higher is better. Range: typically 0–100.

BULL UPSIDE = (bull price target − current price) / current price. For GLD: ($550 − $451) / $451 = +22%. This is the maximum upside if the most optimistic analyst thesis plays out.

ENTRY QUALITY (0–100) = how attractive the current price is as a buy point. Based on: % below all-time high (-12%), upside to bull PT (+22%), forward PE (N/A vs sector), and analyst conviction. Score: 12. Poor entry — near ATH or very expensive valuation.

CONFIDENCE = our overall conviction in the thesis (0–100%). Factors: strength of catalysts, analyst coverage quality, thesis durability, risk/reward skew.Moderate conviction — thesis is solid but risks are material.

$261~$451$510$550

52W LowATHBull PT

🎯 Investment Thesis

Gold holding firm above $5,000 even as yields and dollar rise on strong jobs data — remarkable resilience. 8% below ATH ($510). Central bank buying remains structural. Oman talks passed without clear resolution — geopolitical uncertainty persists. Zacks names gold "Bull of the Day" on surging metal prices.

⚠️ Key Risk

Any diplomatic breakthrough on Iran = gold down 15-20%. Risk-on AI capex environment means opportunity cost vs equities. Already up significantly — not the same entry as pre-rally. Strong jobs data reducing rate cut likelihood removes one gold tailwind.

By The Numbers

Price

$451

ATH

$510

52W Low

$261

Fwd PE

N/A

Market Cap

ETF

Revenue

N/A

Rev Growth

N/A

Gross Margin

N/A

Op Margin

N/A

FCF

N/A

Cash

N/A

Debt

N/A

Event Impact

🤖

AI Infrastructure Boom

Risk-on AI sentiment pulls capital away from gold.

-10 ⚔️

Iran Geopolitical Crisis

Gold above $5,000 and holding firm. Classic safe haven in geopolitical uncertainty.

+90 ⚛️

Quantum Computing Breakout

No quantum relevance.

0 🇨🇳

China Trade War Escalation

Safe haven demand increases in trade war uncertainty.

+15 💵

USD & Fed Policy

Gold is THE anti-dollar asset. Weaker DXY (~97) directly boosts gold. Rate cuts reduce opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. Above $5,000 with central bank buying structural.

+60 ⚡

Energy Grid Supercycle

No energy grid relevance.

0 🏛️

US Fiscal & DOGE

Gold benefits from fiscal deterioration — $38.6T debt, $1T interest costs signal long-term dollar debasement. Debt ceiling fight in Nov 2026 could drive safe-haven demand.

+45

Price Targets

Current

$451

Bear PT

$380

Consensus

$510

Bull PT

$550

Upcoming Catalysts

HIGHFeb 8-10Oman talks concluded — no clear resolution, uncertainty persists

HIGHOngoingCentral bank buying + Iran/Hormuz developments

Competitive Landscape

IAU ↗iShares Gold Trust

Lower expense ratio but less liquid

Company Background

Largest physically backed gold ETF, launched 2004. Each share ~1/10th oz of gold held in London and Zurich vaults.