ℹ️ How are these calculated?
🎯 Investment Thesis
Q4 2025 earnings beat validated the thesis — gross margin improving, cost reductions accelerating. CEO called on-site power "a vital business necessity." Oracle partnership + AEP + expanding customer base. Mizuho raised to $110, analysts boosting estimates across the board. At $143, 19% below ATH after post-earnings profit-taking — better entry point than pre-earnings $156. Fundamentals improving but stock giving back gains.
⚠️ Key Risk
Post-earnings pullback 8% despite beat — momentum fragility. Still at 49x forward PE with thin profitability. Mizuho Neutral $110 is the most conservative voice. 52-week low was $15 — this is a 10x stock. Fuel cell economics still unproven at scale vs nuclear. Revenue concentration in a few mega-deals (AEP, Oracle).
By The Numbers
Event Impact
On-site fuel cell power for data centers. AEP deal + Oracle AI DC partnership. Q4 beat validates DC power demand thesis.
Energy security play — on-site power reduces grid dependence.
No quantum relevance.
US-focused power generation. Minimal trade exposure.
At 49x PE with thin profitability, extremely rate sensitive. $1.2B debt with -$150M FCF. Higher rates crush ability to finance growth and compress speculative multiples.
On-site fuel cell power generation is a direct grid alternative/supplement. AEP deal, Oracle AI DC partnership. 2GW capacity milestone. Solves grid interconnection bottleneck by generating power at the point of use.
Clean energy ITC for fuel cells preserved in OBBBA. Some government facility deployments. Fiscal support for distributed energy generation.
Price Targets
Upcoming Catalysts
Competitive Landscape
Company Background
Founded 2001 by K.R. Sridhar, originally built fuel cells for NASA Mars missions. Pivoted to commercial power. Was a clean energy also-ran until AI data center power crisis made on-site generation essential.