ℹ️ How are these calculated?
🎯 Investment Thesis
HBM is the memory bottleneck for AI — every NVIDIA Blackwell/Rubin GPU needs stacks of it. Micron is one of only 3 companies making HBM (with Samsung and SK Hynix). At 9x forward PE for a company growing 62% YoY, MU is one of the cheapest AI plays in the market. Morgan Stanley just raised PT to $450, Mizuho to $480 — analysts see $52 EPS in 2026. HBM supply is sold out through 2026, and HBM4 transition in H2 gives Micron a technological reset. Only 10% below ATH but at this PE the stock could re-rate significantly higher.
⚠️ Key Risk
Memory is cyclical — HBM could face oversupply by 2027 as Samsung and SK Hynix expand capacity. Near ATH at 10% below ($456) limits margin of safety. Trailing PE of 39x reflects the lag between stock price and earnings catch-up. China ban on Micron products remains a headwind. If AI capex decelerates, HBM demand softens and the 9x PE re-rating thesis breaks.
By The Numbers
Event Impact
HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) is critical component in every AI GPU. Demand exceeds supply through 2026.
No exposure to energy or defense.
Memory may play role in quantum-classical hybrid systems.
China banned Micron products in 2023. Ongoing geopolitical headwind.
International revenue benefits from weaker dollar. Memory pricing is cyclical and somewhat rate-insensitive. At 10x PE, limited valuation compression risk.
No energy grid relevance.
CHIPS Act beneficiary for US fab expansion. Minor fiscal exposure.
Price Targets
Upcoming Catalysts
Competitive Landscape
HBM market leader, NVIDIA preferred supplier
Catching up in HBM but behind on yields
Company Background
Founded 1978 in Boise, Idaho. Survived multiple memory downturns. HBM revolution transforms them from commodity memory to high-value AI component supplier.