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DELLYahoo Finance ↗Dell TechnologiesAI Servers

~$113PE: 10xMCap: $75.6B-35% from ATH

Market data via Yahoo Finance as of Feb 12, 2026· Analysis as of Feb 11, 2026

COMPOSITE

+59%

BULL UPSIDE

ENTRY QUALITY

62%

CONFIDENCE

ℹ️ How are these calculated?

COMPOSITE = Σ(event relevance × event probability) × entry quality / 100. Combines how much this stock benefits from macro events with how good the entry point is right now. For DELL: (82 × 85% + 5 × 60% + 0 × 35% + -10 × 55% + -15 × 0% + 5 × 0% + 15 × 0%) × 74/100 = 50. Higher is better. Range: typically 0–100.

BULL UPSIDE = (bull price target − current price) / current price. For DELL: ($180 − $113) / $113 = +59%. This is the maximum upside if the most optimistic analyst thesis plays out.

ENTRY QUALITY (0–100) = how attractive the current price is as a buy point. Based on: % below all-time high (-35%), upside to bull PT (+59%), forward PE (10x vs sector), and analyst conviction. Score: 74. Good entry — reasonable discount with solid upside.

CONFIDENCE = our overall conviction in the thesis (0–100%). Factors: strength of catalysts, analyst coverage quality, thesis durability, risk/reward skew.Moderate conviction — thesis is solid but risks are material.

$66~$113$174$180

52W LowATHBull PT

🎯 Investment Thesis

Dell is the enterprise gateway to AI infrastructure. $25B in AI server shipments for FY2026 with a $18.4B backlog that keeps growing. At just 11x forward PE, this is the cheapest large-cap AI play by far. Revenue $112B with 17% growth. Barclays upgraded to Overweight ($148), Goldman and Citi maintain Buy at $165. Q4 FY2026 earnings Feb 27 is the next catalyst. Mixed signals: Piper Sandler flags cautious setup ahead of earnings. Morgan Stanley Underweight ($111) is the bear case.

⚠️ Key Risk

AI server margins are thin (high single-digit gross margins vs 30%+ for traditional servers). Stock is 26% below ATH ($174) — market is skeptical about margin compression. Morgan Stanley Underweight ($111) flags structural margin risk. PC business is cyclical drag. Storage growth has been weak. Competition from HPE, Lenovo, and SMCI on price.

By The Numbers

Price

$113

ATH

$174

52W Low

$66

Fwd PE

10x

Market Cap

$75.6B

Revenue

$112B

Rev Growth

+17% YoY

Gross Margin

23%

Op Margin

7.5%

FCF

$5.5B

Cash

$6B

Debt

$22B

Event Impact

🤖

AI Infrastructure Boom

Largest enterprise AI server vendor. $25B AI server shipments FY2026. $30B YTD orders. Record $18.4B backlog. NVIDIA + AMD partnership.

+82 ⚔️

Iran Geopolitical Crisis

Minor government/defense IT contracts.

+5 ⚛️

Quantum Computing Breakout

No quantum relevance.

0 🇨🇳

China Trade War Escalation

Global supply chain exposure. Some China enterprise revenue.

-10 💵

USD & Fed Policy

$22B debt is heavy for a hardware company. Higher rates increase financing costs. At 10x PE, stock is already discounting margin pressure.

-15 ⚡

Energy Grid Supercycle

AI servers consume power but Dell is a consumer, not a grid player.

+5 🏛️

US Fiscal & DOGE

Government IT contracts growing. Federal modernization spending is a tailwind. DOGE IT spending reviews could go either way.

+15

Price Targets

Current

$113

Bear PT

$90

Consensus

$161

Bull PT

$180

Upcoming Catalysts

HIGHFeb 27Q4 FY2026 earnings — AI server shipments + FY2027 guide

HIGH2026AI server backlog conversion + margin improvement

Competitive Landscape

SMCI ↗Super Micro Computer

Faster to market, cheaper, but governance concerns

HPE ↗Hewlett Packard Enterprise

AI server competitor + Juniper networking acquisition

Company Background

Founded 1984 by Michael Dell in his UT Austin dorm room. Went private in 2013, came back public via VMware. Now the largest AI server vendor by enterprise market share.