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BAHYahoo Finance ↗Booz Allen HamiltonGovernment IT
~$78PE: 12xMCap: $9.6B-40% from ATH
Market data via Yahoo Finance as of Feb 12, 2026· Analysis as of Feb 12, 2026
50
COMPOSITE
+67%
BULL UPSIDE
79
ENTRY QUALITY
55%
CONFIDENCE
ℹ️ How are these calculated?
COMPOSITE = Σ(event relevance × event probability) × entry quality / 100. Combines how much this stock benefits from macro events with how good the entry point is right now. For BAH: (35 × 85% + 40 × 60% + 10 × 35% + 10 × 55% + 5 × 0% + 5 × 0% + 90 × 0%) × 79/100 = 50. Higher is better. Range: typically 0–100.
BULL UPSIDE = (bull price target − current price) / current price. For BAH: ($130 − $78) / $78 = +67%. This is the maximum upside if the most optimistic analyst thesis plays out.
ENTRY QUALITY (0–100) = how attractive the current price is as a buy point. Based on: % below all-time high (-40%), upside to bull PT (+67%), forward PE (12x vs sector), and analyst conviction. Score: 79. Good entry — reasonable discount with solid upside.
CONFIDENCE = our overall conviction in the thesis (0–100%). Factors: strength of catalysts, analyst coverage quality, thesis durability, risk/reward skew.Moderate conviction — thesis is solid but risks are material.
$77~$78$131$130
52W LowATHBull PT

🎯 Investment Thesis

Booz Allen is the best entry in our universe on a value basis — at $78, down 40% from ATH ($131) and near 52-week low ($77). At 12x forward PE for a company earning ~$1B net income on $12B revenue, the DOGE selloff is overdone. Government AI and cyber spending is structural — you can't DOGE away cybersecurity. Stifel Hold $115 and Citi Neutral $109 both imply 40%+ upside. Revenue grew 14% YoY despite DOGE headlines.

⚠️ Key Risk

Near 52-week LOW — that's rare in a bull market and signals real concern. DOGE targeting government consulting is existential risk for BAH. No analyst currently rates Buy — all Hold/Neutral. If DOGE cuts materialize in FY2027 budgets, revenue could decline. Short interest likely elevated. Jefferies lowered to $95 — cautious even at these levels.

By The Numbers

Price
$78
ATH
$131
52W Low
$77
Fwd PE
12x
Market Cap
$9.6B
Revenue
$12B
Rev Growth
+14% YoY
Gross Margin
55%
Op Margin
11%
FCF
$1B
Cash
$500M
Debt
$4B

Event Impact

Price Targets

Current
$78
Bear PT
$60
Consensus
$107
Bull PT
$130

Upcoming Catalysts

HIGHQ1 2026Q3 FY2026 earnings — revenue impact from DOGE headcount reductions
HIGHQ2 2026FY2027 budget proposal — defense vs civilian technology spending allocation

Competitive Landscape

LDOSLeidos

Peer government IT, more hardware focused

Similar profile, less AI-focused

Company Background

Founded 1914 by Edwin Booz. The original management consulting firm. Now focused almost entirely on US government technology — defense AI, cybersecurity, intelligence analytics. The DOGE selloff is the deepest discount this franchise has seen since COVID.