Event-Driven Market Intelligence

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INTCYahoo Finance ↗IntelSemiconductor
~$46PE: 47xMCap: $232B-16% from ATH
Market data via Yahoo Finance as of Feb 12, 2026· Analysis as of Feb 11, 2026
34
COMPOSITE
+55%
BULL UPSIDE
42
ENTRY QUALITY
35%
CONFIDENCE
ℹ️ How are these calculated?
COMPOSITE = Σ(event relevance × event probability) × entry quality / 100. Combines how much this stock benefits from macro events with how good the entry point is right now. For INTC: (40 × 85% + 0 × 60% + 10 × 35% + 80 × 55% + -25 × 0% + 10 × 0% + 40 × 0%) × 42/100 = 34. Higher is better. Range: typically 0–100.
BULL UPSIDE = (bull price target − current price) / current price. For INTC: ($71.5 − $46) / $46 = +55%. This is the maximum upside if the most optimistic analyst thesis plays out.
ENTRY QUALITY (0–100) = how attractive the current price is as a buy point. Based on: % below all-time high (-16%), upside to bull PT (+55%), forward PE (47x vs sector), and analyst conviction. Score: 42. Fair entry — modest discount or near-term headwinds.
CONFIDENCE = our overall conviction in the thesis (0–100%). Factors: strength of catalysts, analyst coverage quality, thesis durability, risk/reward skew.Lower conviction — speculative or thesis depends on uncertain catalysts.
$18~$46$55$71.5
52W LowATHBull PT

🎯 Investment Thesis

The domestic foundry play. Only company building leading-edge fabs on US soil — if China supply chains break or Taiwan becomes inaccessible, Intel is THE alternative. CHIPS Act provides billions in subsidies. But at $48, the stock has doubled from late-2024 lows and is only 12% below ATH. Analyst consensus is unanimously Neutral ($47-52 PTs) — the recovery is priced in. 18A process qualification in H1 2026 is the binary catalyst that determines if the foundry turnaround is real.

⚠️ Key Risk

Trading at 48x forward PE with negative EPS (-$0.13) and -$15B FCF — priced for a turnaround that hasn't happened yet. AMD and NVDA taking share in every segment. CEO departed late 2024, leadership vacuum. All 5 major analysts rate Neutral — nobody is willing to be bullish. If 18A process disappoints, the $24→$48 recovery could fully retrace.

By The Numbers

Price
$46
ATH
$55
52W Low
$18
Fwd PE
47x
Market Cap
$232B
Revenue
$54B
Rev Growth
-8% YoY
Gross Margin
41.2%
Op Margin
-2.5%
FCF
-$15B
Cash
$21B
Debt
$48B

Event Impact

🤖
AI Infrastructure Boom

Intel Foundry Services could benefit from AI chip manufacturing demand.

+40⚔️
Iran Geopolitical Crisis

No defense or energy exposure.

0⚛️
Quantum Computing Breakout

Minor quantum research program.

+10🇨🇳
China Trade War Escalation

Only US-based leading-edge fab builder. CHIPS Act subsidies. Domestic TSMC alternative.

+80💵
USD & Fed Policy

$48B debt with -$15B FCF. Extremely rate-sensitive — higher rates make the capex-heavy fab buildout more expensive. Needs cheap capital to fund turnaround.

-25⚡
Energy Grid Supercycle

New fabs are massive power consumers. Intel fab buildout adds to grid demand but Intel is a consumer, not provider.

+10🏛️
US Fiscal & DOGE

CHIPS Act subsidies ($8.5B+ approved) directly tied to federal spending. Defense chip production mandate adds fiscal exposure. DOGE risk if industrial policy support is cut.

+40

Price Targets

Current
$46
Bear PT
$15
Consensus
$47
Bull PT
$71.5

Upcoming Catalysts

HIGHQ1 2026Earnings — foundry progress
HIGHQ2 2026Intel 18A process qualification

Competitive Landscape

TSM ↗TSMC

Foundry leader but Taiwan location is the geopolitical risk INTC hedges

Company Background

Once undisputed semiconductor king, lost manufacturing lead to TSMC mid-2010s. IDM 2.0 strategy launched 2021 to rebuild, but CEO departed late 2024 amid challenges.