ℹ️ How are these calculated?
🎯 Investment Thesis
FSLR -1.4% ($192→$189) — modest decline relative to SPY -1.31%. BLS -92K creates a mixed signal: weak economy bad for energy demand, but rate cuts could boost project financing for solar installations. At 7x forward PE, FSLR is the cheapest name in our universe by a wide margin. $32B+ backlog to 2030 provides revenue visibility regardless of macro. OBBBA Jul 5 deadline creates urgency. Only US solar manufacturer at scale — energy independence thesis strengthened by oil at $91.
⚠️ Key Risk
Oil at $91 shifts energy narrative toward fossil fuels and nuclear — FSLR is losing relative appeal vs CEG. BLS -92K suggests economic weakness that could slow commercial/utility installations. OBBBA sunset creates a cliff after Jul 2026. Solar underperforming nuclear consistently in the conflict environment. If FOMC signals zero rate cuts, project financing costs stay elevated.
By The Numbers
Event Impact
Solar can power data centers but DC operators prefer baseload (nuclear/gas). Utility-scale solar is supplemental.
Domestic solar manufacturing reduces energy dependence on disrupted fossil fuel supply routes.
No quantum relevance.
Only US-based solar manufacturer at scale. CdTe technology avoids Chinese polysilicon supply chain entirely. Anti-dumping duties on Chinese solar benefit FSLR directly.
CPTPP supply chain realignment away from China for solar inputs modestly benefits FSLR's CdTe alternative, while BRICS-linked Chinese panel dumping risk diminishes.
At 9x PE, very rate-insensitive. US manufacturing base limits FX exposure. Backlog provides revenue visibility.
Largest US solar manufacturer. CdTe thin-film technology. OBBBA construction start deadline (Jul 4, 2026) creates urgency. $32B+ backlog extending to 2030. 25 GW annual capacity by 2026.
IRA/OBBBA solar credits are existential for FSLR. Manufacturing PTC ($0.12/W) adds ~$3/share. Deficit-funded clean energy spending is at risk from fiscal hawks, but Jul 2026 deadline pulls demand forward regardless.
Solar panel manufacturing is capital-intensive, not labor-intensive in white-collar functions — AI workforce disruption has minimal relevance
Price Targets
Upcoming Catalysts
Competitive Landscape
Company Background
Founded 1999 in Tempe, AZ. Pioneered cadmium telluride thin-film solar. The only major solar panel maker that doesn't depend on Chinese polysilicon supply chains — a strategic advantage that became critical after 2022 trade restrictions.