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FSLRYahoo Finance ↗First SolarSolar

~$220PE: 9xMCap: $23.7B-23% from ATH

Market data via Yahoo Finance as of Feb 12, 2026· Analysis as of Feb 12, 2026

COMPOSITE

+45%

BULL UPSIDE

ENTRY QUALITY

60%

CONFIDENCE

ℹ️ How are these calculated?

COMPOSITE = Σ(event relevance × event probability) × entry quality / 100. Combines how much this stock benefits from macro events with how good the entry point is right now. For FSLR: (10 × 85% + 5 × 60% + 0 × 35% + 55 × 55% + 5 × 0% + 80 × 0% + 40 × 0%) × 65/100 = 27. Higher is better. Range: typically 0–100.

BULL UPSIDE = (bull price target − current price) / current price. For FSLR: ($320 − $220) / $220 = +45%. This is the maximum upside if the most optimistic analyst thesis plays out.

ENTRY QUALITY (0–100) = how attractive the current price is as a buy point. Based on: % below all-time high (-23%), upside to bull PT (+45%), forward PE (9x vs sector), and analyst conviction. Score: 65. Good entry — reasonable discount with solid upside.

CONFIDENCE = our overall conviction in the thesis (0–100%). Factors: strength of catalysts, analyst coverage quality, thesis durability, risk/reward skew.Moderate conviction — thesis is solid but risks are material.

$117~$220$286$320

52W LowATHBull PT

🎯 Investment Thesis

First Solar is the only US-based solar manufacturer at scale — CdTe thin-film avoids Chinese polysilicon entirely. At 9x forward PE with a $32B+ backlog extending to 2030, this is the cheapest energy stock in our universe. Guggenheim Buy $312, Wells Fargo Overweight $285, BofA Buy $271. The OBBBA construction deadline (Jul 4, 2026) creates near-term demand urgency. 23% below ATH ($286) creates a real entry window.

⚠️ Key Risk

Jefferies downgraded to Hold $260 — not everyone is bullish. OBBBA sunset of solar ITC/PTC for post-Jul 2026 projects is a double-edged sword: pulls demand forward but creates a cliff after. CdTe technology is niche vs mainstream silicon. Tariff policy changes could reduce the competitive moat vs Chinese imports. Stock volatile — fell 3% today.

By The Numbers

Price

$220

ATH

$286

52W Low

$117

Fwd PE

Market Cap

$23.7B

Revenue

$4.2B

Rev Growth

+28% YoY

Gross Margin

46%

Op Margin

32%

FCF

$1.5B

Cash

$1.8B

Debt

$600M

Event Impact

🤖

AI Infrastructure Boom

Solar can power data centers but DC operators prefer baseload (nuclear/gas). Utility-scale solar is supplemental.

+10 ⚔️

Iran Geopolitical Crisis

Energy diversification away from fossil fuels. Minor benefit.

+5 ⚛️

Quantum Computing Breakout

No quantum relevance.

0 🇨🇳

China Trade War Escalation

Only US-based solar manufacturer at scale. CdTe technology avoids Chinese polysilicon supply chain entirely. Anti-dumping duties on Chinese solar benefit FSLR directly.

+55 💵

USD & Fed Policy

At 9x PE, very rate-insensitive. US manufacturing base limits FX exposure. Backlog provides revenue visibility.

+5 ⚡

Energy Grid Supercycle

Largest US solar manufacturer. CdTe thin-film technology. OBBBA construction start deadline (Jul 4, 2026) creates urgency. $32B+ backlog extending to 2030. 25 GW annual capacity by 2026.

+80 🏛️

US Fiscal & DOGE

IRA/OBBBA solar credits are existential for FSLR. Manufacturing PTC ($0.12/W) adds ~$3/share to EPS. Jul 2026 construction deadline drives near-term demand. Policy reversal is the biggest risk.

+40

Price Targets

Current

$220

Bear PT

$150

Consensus

$280

Bull PT

$320

Upcoming Catalysts

HIGHFeb 2026Q4 2025 earnings — backlog update, manufacturing PTC impact

HIGHJul 4, 2026OBBBA solar/wind credit construction start deadline

MEDIUM2026US Series 7 factory expansion to 25 GW annual capacity

Competitive Landscape

CSIQ ↗Canadian Solar

Chinese-supplied, lower cost but tariff-exposed

SPWR ↗SunPower

US residential solar, went bankrupt 2024

Company Background

Founded 1999 in Tempe, AZ. Pioneered cadmium telluride thin-film solar. The only major solar panel maker that doesn't depend on Chinese polysilicon supply chains — a strategic advantage that became critical after 2022 trade restrictions.