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ENPHYahoo Finance ↗Enphase EnergySolar
~$44PE: 16xMCap: $5.8B-38% from ATH
Market data via Yahoo Finance as of Feb 12, 2026· Analysis as of Feb 12, 2026
7
COMPOSITE
+82%
BULL UPSIDE
82
ENTRY QUALITY
42%
CONFIDENCE
ℹ️ How are these calculated?
COMPOSITE = Σ(event relevance × event probability) × entry quality / 100. Combines how much this stock benefits from macro events with how good the entry point is right now. For ENPH: (0 × 85% + 0 × 60% + 0 × 35% + 15 × 55% + -25 × 0% + 55 × 0% + 25 × 0%) × 82/100 = 7. Higher is better. Range: typically 0–100.
BULL UPSIDE = (bull price target − current price) / current price. For ENPH: ($80 − $44) / $44 = +82%. This is the maximum upside if the most optimistic analyst thesis plays out.
ENTRY QUALITY (0–100) = how attractive the current price is as a buy point. Based on: % below all-time high (-38%), upside to bull PT (+82%), forward PE (16x vs sector), and analyst conviction. Score: 82. Excellent entry — significantly below ATH with strong upside.
CONFIDENCE = our overall conviction in the thesis (0–100%). Factors: strength of catalysts, analyst coverage quality, thesis durability, risk/reward skew.Lower conviction — speculative or thesis depends on uncertain catalysts.
$26~$44$71$80
52W LowATHBull PT

🎯 Investment Thesis

Enphase fell 8.5% today to $44 — now 38% below ATH ($71) and approaching deep value territory at 16x forward PE. The residential solar leader with 80%+ US microinverter market share. IQ8 + IQ Battery create a complete home energy system. If rates come down in H2 2026, residential solar demand recovers and Enphase re-rates. At $5.8B mcap, this is a micro-cap setup with category-leader fundamentals.

⚠️ Key Risk

Stock in freefall — down 8.5% today, down 38% from ATH. Residential solar market in a deep slump as high mortgage rates suppress installations. Revenue declining YoY. Competition from SolarEdge and Chinese string inverters. If rates stay high, the recovery thesis doesn't play out. At $5.8B mcap, liquidity risk in sharp selloffs.

By The Numbers

Price
$44
ATH
$71
52W Low
$26
Fwd PE
16x
Market Cap
$5.8B
Revenue
$1.4B
Rev Growth
-8% YoY
Gross Margin
42%
Op Margin
15%
FCF
$400M
Cash
$1.7B
Debt
$1.3B

Event Impact

🤖
AI Infrastructure Boom

Residential solar — no data center relevance.

0⚔️
Iran Geopolitical Crisis

No defense or energy exposure at scale.

0⚛️
Quantum Computing Breakout

No quantum relevance.

0🇨🇳
China Trade War Escalation

US-designed microinverters. IQ8 manufacturing in US and India avoids China supply chain.

+15💵
USD & Fed Policy

Residential solar demand is highly rate-sensitive — higher mortgage rates = fewer home solar installations. At 16x PE, less exposed than peak, but consumer financing is critical.

-25⚡
Energy Grid Supercycle

Microinverters for distributed solar + IQ battery storage. Grid-edge technology enables virtual power plants. Solar + storage reduces grid stress at the distribution level.

+55🏛️
US Fiscal & DOGE

Residential solar ITC (30%) preserved in OBBBA. Battery storage credits add incremental benefit. Any expansion of residential clean energy credits is a direct tailwind.

+25

Price Targets

Current
$44
Bear PT
$30
Consensus
$45
Bull PT
$80

Upcoming Catalysts

HIGHQ1 2026Q4 2025 earnings — residential solar demand recovery signals
HIGHH2 2026Expected Fed rate cuts could reignite residential solar demand

Competitive Landscape

SEDG ↗SolarEdge

Direct competitor in inverters/optimizers, worse financial position

TSLA ↗Tesla Solar

Tesla Powerwall competes with IQ Battery

Company Background

Founded 2006. Invented the solar microinverter — converting DC to AC at each panel instead of a central inverter. Dominated US residential solar. Stock went from $300 ATH in 2022 to sub-$30 in the 2024 solar bust.