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RTXYahoo Finance ↗RTX CorporationDefense

~$201PE: 27xMCap: $270B-2% from ATH

Market data via Yahoo Finance as of Feb 12, 2026· Analysis as of Feb 11, 2026

COMPOSITE

+29%

BULL UPSIDE

ENTRY QUALITY

70%

CONFIDENCE

ℹ️ How are these calculated?

COMPOSITE = Σ(event relevance × event probability) × entry quality / 100. Combines how much this stock benefits from macro events with how good the entry point is right now. For RTX: (5 × 85% + 92 × 60% + 0 × 35% + 20 × 55% + -15 × 0% + 0 × 0% + 75 × 0%) × 39/100 = 27. Higher is better. Range: typically 0–100.

BULL UPSIDE = (bull price target − current price) / current price. For RTX: ($260 − $201) / $201 = +29%. This is the maximum upside if the most optimistic analyst thesis plays out.

ENTRY QUALITY (0–100) = how attractive the current price is as a buy point. Based on: % below all-time high (-2%), upside to bull PT (+29%), forward PE (27x vs sector), and analyst conviction. Score: 39. Poor entry — near ATH or very expensive valuation.

CONFIDENCE = our overall conviction in the thesis (0–100%). Factors: strength of catalysts, analyst coverage quality, thesis durability, risk/reward skew.High conviction — strong catalysts and clear thesis.

$112~$201$206$260

52W LowATHBull PT

🎯 Investment Thesis

$260B backlog with stronger analyst conviction than LMT — Citi Buy $238, RBC Outperform $230, JP Morgan Overweight $215 (all raised Jan-Feb 2026). Global rearmament driving Patriot and SM-3 demand. Pratt & Whitney diversifies into commercial aerospace. At 26x PE, premium to LMT (20x) but the Buy ratings justify it.

⚠️ Key Risk

Near ATH ($197 vs $206, 4% below). UBS Neutral at $208 is conservative. Supply chain still limiting missile production ramp. P&W GTF engine reliability issues linger. Commercial aerospace slowdown would hurt the diversification premium.

By The Numbers

Price

$201

ATH

$206

52W Low

$112

Fwd PE

27x

Market Cap

$270B

Revenue

$79.8B

Rev Growth

+8% YoY

Gross Margin

22.1%

Op Margin

10.5%

FCF

$8.2B

Cash

$6.8B

Debt

$42.3B

Event Impact

🤖

AI Infrastructure Boom

Minimal AI exposure outside small R&D.

+5 ⚔️

Iran Geopolitical Crisis

$260B backlog. Patriot and SM-3 in surging global demand.

+92 ⚛️

Quantum Computing Breakout

No quantum relevance.

0 🇨🇳

China Trade War Escalation

Pacific military buildup drives missile procurement.

+20 💵

USD & Fed Policy

$42.3B debt is significant. Higher rates increase financing costs. Commercial aerospace segment sensitive to economic cycle.

-15 ⚡

Energy Grid Supercycle

No energy grid relevance.

0 🏛️

US Fiscal & DOGE

$260B backlog, 53% government revenue. Patriot/SM-3 demand tied to defense budget. More diversified than LMT with commercial aerospace. Executive pay scrutiny from White House is a headwind.

+75

Price Targets

Current

$201

Bear PT

$150

Consensus

$215

Bull PT

$260

Upcoming Catalysts

HIGHJan 28Q4 earnings — all analysts raised PTs

HIGHApr 2026Q1 2026 earnings — Patriot/SM-3 production ramp

Competitive Landscape

LMT ↗Lockheed Martin

Platforms (F-35) vs RTX missiles and engines

Company Background

Formed 2020 from Raytheon + United Technologies aerospace merger. Second-largest defense contractor plus major commercial engine supplier.