ℹ️ How are these calculated?
🎯 Investment Thesis
NVIDIA is the most important company in AI. Every major AI model — GPT, Gemini, Llama, Claude — trains on NVIDIA GPUs. Revenue hit $57B in Q3 FY2026, up 62% YoY, with data center at $51.2B (+66%). Blackwell is ramping, Rubin announced for H2 2026. Jensen Huang told CNBC the $660B capex buildout is sustainable. Cloud GPUs are sold out. At 25x forward PE for a company growing 60%+, the valuation is defensible. Q4 earnings Feb 25 is the next catalyst.
⚠️ Key Risk
At $4.7T, NVDA is the most valuable company on Earth. Any deceleration in AI spending hits this stock hardest. Custom ASICs from Broadcom/Marvell threaten GPU monopoly long-term. China export controls reduce TAM. 10% below ATH ($212). Rubin transition could create air pocket in H1 2026.
By The Numbers
Event Impact
THE AI company. Blackwell/Rubin GPUs power virtually all AI training and inference. $130B+ revenue, 66% YoY DC growth. Jensen Huang IS the AI capex cycle.
Broad risk-off would hit $4.5T valuation hardest.
cuQuantum SDK, DGX Quantum with QPUs. NVIDIA will integrate quantum into GPU workflows.
China export controls directly limit GPU sales. H200 access being negotiated with Trump admin. ~15% revenue at risk.
International revenue benefits from weaker dollar. At 25x PE, less rate-sensitive than typical growth stocks. $38B cash position provides buffer.
GPU data centers are massive power consumers driving grid demand. NVDA benefits from grid expansion enabling more DC builds.
Minimal fiscal exposure. Some government AI contracts but small vs commercial revenue.
Price Targets
Upcoming Catalysts
Competitive Landscape
Company Background
Founded 1993 by Jensen Huang in a Denny's booth. Made gaming GPUs for 25 years. CUDA platform (2006) accidentally created the AI computing standard. Now the most valuable company in history.