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ALABYahoo Finance ↗Astera LabsDC Switching

~$127PE: 36xMCap: $21.5B-52% from ATH

Market data via Yahoo Finance as of Feb 12, 2026· Analysis as of Feb 11, 2026

COMPOSITE

+120%

BULL UPSIDE

ENTRY QUALITY

58%

CONFIDENCE

ℹ️ How are these calculated?

COMPOSITE = Σ(event relevance × event probability) × entry quality / 100. Combines how much this stock benefits from macro events with how good the entry point is right now. For ALAB: (90 × 85% + 0 × 60% + 0 × 35% + 5 × 55% + -15 × 0% + 0 × 0% + 0 × 0%) × 88/100 = 70. Higher is better. Range: typically 0–100.

BULL UPSIDE = (bull price target − current price) / current price. For ALAB: ($280 − $127) / $127 = +120%. This is the maximum upside if the most optimistic analyst thesis plays out.

ENTRY QUALITY (0–100) = how attractive the current price is as a buy point. Based on: % below all-time high (-52%), upside to bull PT (+120%), forward PE (36x vs sector), and analyst conviction. Score: 88. Excellent entry — significantly below ATH with strong upside.

CONFIDENCE = our overall conviction in the thesis (0–100%). Factors: strength of catalysts, analyst coverage quality, thesis durability, risk/reward skew.Moderate conviction — thesis is solid but risks are material.

$47~$127$263$280

52W LowATHBull PT

🎯 Investment Thesis

Owns 86% PCIe retimer market. Q4 beat revenue expectations but stock plunged on margin concerns and Amazon warrant issuance (dilution). Scorpio X fabric switches entering volume. Citi maintains Buy but lowered PT to $250, RBC initiated Outperform ($225). At 45% below ATH ($263), the selloff creates a potential entry — but margin pressure is the new concern. Revenue growth remains strong.

⚠️ Key Risk

41x forward PE (trailing 150x) still stretched. Q4 earnings caused plunge — Amazon warrant dilution and margin compression spooked investors. Broadcom building competing products. Revenue concentrated in few customers. If margins continue declining as scale increases, the revenue-growth-without-profitability story becomes a liability.