ℹ️ How are these calculated?
🎯 Investment Thesis
AMD is the only credible alternative to NVIDIA in AI accelerators. MI300X adopted by Azure, Oracle, Meta. The OpenAI 6GW deal is transformative — first gigawatt deployment starts 2026. Revenue growing 36% with a path to 60% CAGR per management. At 20x forward PE, significantly cheaper than NVDA's 25x. Down 20% from ATH ($267) with Evercore raising PT to $328 and Keybanc to $300 — analysts see the post-Feb 4 selloff as a buying opportunity.
⚠️ Key Risk
Software ecosystem (ROCm) still trails CUDA significantly. MI300 margins lower than NVIDIA's. The Feb 4 crash (-17%) was triggered by AI spending concerns — if hyperscaler capex slows, AMD gets hit harder as the #2 player. Trailing PE of 82x reflects current earnings lag. Morgan Stanley maintains Equal-Weight at $255 — not all analysts are bullish.
By The Numbers
Event Impact
#2 GPU maker. MI300X in production, MI400/MI450 ramping 2026. OpenAI signed 6GW multi-year deal. Revenue $34.6B, growing 36% YoY.
No defense or energy exposure.
CPUs used in quantum-classical hybrid control systems.
China export controls affect GPU sales. CPU supply shortages reported for Chinese customers. ~15% revenue exposure.
Some international revenue benefits from weaker dollar. At 20x PE, moderate rate sensitivity.
GPU data centers drive power demand. AMD chips enable AI workloads that need grid capacity.
No significant fiscal exposure.
Price Targets
Upcoming Catalysts
Competitive Landscape
Company Background
Founded 1969. Nearly went bankrupt in 2014. Lisa Su transformed it from a dying chip company into NVIDIA's only real competitor in AI. The MI300 launch in 2023 was AMD's "CUDA moment."