ℹ️ How are these calculated?
🎯 Investment Thesis
Deteriorating. Converse division cutting jobs after 30% sales decline. Stock broke below both 50-day and 200-day SMAs — technically bearish. Needham downgraded to Hold, Keybanc lowered PT to $75 (from $90), RBC lowered to $78. CEO Hill says "turnaround spreading across the world" but results don't show it yet. At 38% below ATH, the pain isn't over.
⚠️ Key Risk
BTIG maintains Buy $100 — sees 60% upside as the turnaround play. CEO Hill is making changes (Converse restructuring, product innovation). Brand is still globally dominant. A China trade resolution would be a massive catalyst. At 2.6% dividend yield, you're getting paid to wait.
By The Numbers
Event Impact
No AI infrastructure relevance.
No defense or energy exposure.
No quantum relevance.
China was growth engine. Consumer boycotts, local brand competition (Anta, Li Ning). Revenue declining.
~60% international revenue benefits from weaker dollar. Consumer spending sensitive to rates — lower rates help discretionary purchases.
No energy grid relevance.
No significant fiscal exposure.
Price Targets
Upcoming Catalysts
Competitive Landscape
European competitor with recovering China business
Company Background
Founded 1964 by Phil Knight and Bill Bowerman as Blue Ribbon Sports. The world's largest athletic footwear and apparel company. China grew to ~15% of revenue before trade tensions.