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SMCIYahoo Finance ↗Super Micro ComputerAI Servers

~$30PE: 10xMCap: $18.2B-55% from ATH

Market data via Yahoo Finance as of Feb 12, 2026· Analysis as of Feb 11, 2026

COMPOSITE

+100%

BULL UPSIDE

ENTRY QUALITY

38%

CONFIDENCE

ℹ️ How are these calculated?

COMPOSITE = Σ(event relevance × event probability) × entry quality / 100. Combines how much this stock benefits from macro events with how good the entry point is right now. For SMCI: (85 × 85% + 0 × 60% + 0 × 35% + -15 × 55% + -5 × 0% + 5 × 0% + 0 × 0%) × 96/100 = 61. Higher is better. Range: typically 0–100.

BULL UPSIDE = (bull price target − current price) / current price. For SMCI: ($60 − $30) / $30 = +100%. This is the maximum upside if the most optimistic analyst thesis plays out.

ENTRY QUALITY (0–100) = how attractive the current price is as a buy point. Based on: % below all-time high (-55%), upside to bull PT (+100%), forward PE (10x vs sector), and analyst conviction. Score: 96. Excellent entry — significantly below ATH with strong upside.

CONFIDENCE = our overall conviction in the thesis (0–100%). Factors: strength of catalysts, analyst coverage quality, thesis durability, risk/reward skew.Lower conviction — speculative or thesis depends on uncertain catalysts.

$28~$30$66$60

52W LowATHBull PT

🎯 Investment Thesis

SMCI is the fastest GPU server assembler in the world — when NVIDIA ships new chips, Super Micro has systems ready first. Trading at just 11x forward PE with $40B revenue guidance for 2026. Q2 FY2026 beat with significant EPS and revenue surprise. At 52% below ATH ($66), this is the deepest value AI play if governance concerns resolve. Extreme analyst divergence — Goldman Sell $27, Rosenblatt Buy $50 — reflects the binary nature of the risk.

⚠️ Key Risk

Governance risk remains the defining issue — Goldman maintains Sell ($27), Mizuho Neutral ($33). Delayed SEC filings and auditor issues still overhang. Competition from Dell and HPE intensifying on price. Margins thin vs peers. If accounting concerns resurface, the 52% ATH discount could widen further. Binary risk: governance resolution → re-rate to 20x+ ($60); new revelations → retrace to $20s.

By The Numbers

Price

$30

ATH

$66

52W Low

$28

Fwd PE

10x

Market Cap

$18.2B

Revenue

$21B

Rev Growth

+56% YoY

Gross Margin

12%

Op Margin

FCF

$220M

Cash

$1.4B

Debt

$2.8B

Event Impact

🤖

AI Infrastructure Boom

Fastest AI server assembler. Deep NVIDIA partnership. $40B revenue guidance for 2026. Direct liquid cooling leader.

+85 ⚔️

Iran Geopolitical Crisis

No defense or energy exposure.

0 ⚛️

Quantum Computing Breakout

No quantum relevance.

0 🇨🇳

China Trade War Escalation

Supply chain has Asia exposure. Export controls could impact.

-15 💵

USD & Fed Policy

At 10x PE, relatively rate-insensitive. $2.8B debt manageable given revenue scale. Thin margins mean any cost increase matters.

-5 ⚡

Energy Grid Supercycle

AI servers consume power but SMCI is a consumer, not a grid provider. Direct liquid cooling leadership reduces per-rack power needs.

+5 🏛️

US Fiscal & DOGE

No significant fiscal exposure.

Price Targets

Current

$30

Bear PT

$15

Consensus

$41

Bull PT

$60

Upcoming Catalysts

HIGHFeb 2026Q2 FY2026 beat — EPS and revenue surprise

HIGHMay 2026Q3 FY2026 earnings — revenue trajectory

HIGH2026SEC filing resolution + potential S&P 500 re-inclusion

Competitive Landscape

DELL ↗Dell Technologies

Larger, more trusted, but slower to market with new GPU configs

HPE ↗Hewlett Packard Enterprise

AI server competitor, more conservative approach

Company Background

Founded 1993 by Charles Liang. Was the first to market with NVIDIA DGX systems. Nearly delisted in 2024 over accounting concerns. The ultimate high-risk/high-reward AI play.