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WDCYahoo Finance ↗USER ADDEDWestern DigitalHDD Storage

~$284PE: 21xMCap: $97.1B-8% from ATH

Market data via Yahoo Finance as of Feb 12, 2026· Analysis as of Feb 12, 2026

COMPOSITE

+55%

BULL UPSIDE

ENTRY QUALITY

48%

CONFIDENCE

ℹ️ How are these calculated?

COMPOSITE = Σ(event relevance × event probability) × entry quality / 100. Combines how much this stock benefits from macro events with how good the entry point is right now. For WDC: (40 × 85% + 0 × 60% + 0 × 35% + -10 × 55% + -10 × 0% + 0 × 0% + 0 × 0%) × 39/100 = 11. Higher is better. Range: typically 0–100.

BULL UPSIDE = (bull price target − current price) / current price. For WDC: ($440 − $284) / $284 = +55%. This is the maximum upside if the most optimistic analyst thesis plays out.

ENTRY QUALITY (0–100) = how attractive the current price is as a buy point. Based on: % below all-time high (-8%), upside to bull PT (+55%), forward PE (21x vs sector), and analyst conviction. Score: 39. Poor entry — near ATH or very expensive valuation.

CONFIDENCE = our overall conviction in the thesis (0–100%). Factors: strength of catalysts, analyst coverage quality, thesis durability, risk/reward skew.Lower conviction — speculative or thesis depends on uncertain catalysts.

$29~$284$308$440

52W LowATHBull PT

🎯 Investment Thesis

Rally continues — $4B buyback expansion signals management confidence, and 100TB HDD roadmap targeting 2029 extends the growth runway. Best performing S&P 500 stock over 5 years ($29→$297). AI data storage thesis proven: petabyte-scale training data needs cheap bulk storage, HDD is 10x cheaper per TB than SSD. Near ATH ($308) at 22x forward PE. Analysts bullish: Cantor Fitzgerald $420, Citi $335, Rosenblatt $340.

⚠️ Key Risk

Near ATH ($297 vs $308) — the easy money has been made. WDC re-rated 3x from deep value days. $4B buyback adds floor but HDDs remain a long-term secular decline story as SSD prices fall; the AI-driven boom may be the peak of the cycle. Seagate duopoly means thin margins in a price war. Goldman skeptic at Neutral/$250. Any HDD demand softening triggers sharp de-rate.

By The Numbers

Price

$284

ATH

$308

52W Low

$29

Fwd PE

21x

Market Cap

$97.1B

Revenue

$13B

Rev Growth

-5% YoY

Gross Margin

28%

Op Margin

12%

FCF

$800M

Cash

$2B

Debt

$6B

Event Impact

🤖

AI Infrastructure Boom

HDD storage for AI data lakes and cold storage. Spun off NAND (SanDisk). Pure HDD play now — cheapest storage per TB.

+40 ⚔️

Iran Geopolitical Crisis

No defense or energy exposure.

0 ⚛️

Quantum Computing Breakout

No quantum relevance.

0 🇨🇳

China Trade War Escalation

Asia manufacturing and supply chain exposure.

-10 💵

USD & Fed Policy

$6B debt at 22x PE. HDD demand somewhat cyclical. International revenue from weaker dollar is a minor positive.

-10 ⚡

Energy Grid Supercycle

No energy grid relevance.

0 🏛️

US Fiscal & DOGE

No significant fiscal exposure.

Price Targets

Current

$284

Bear PT

$30

Consensus

$314

Bull PT

$440

Upcoming Catalysts

HIGHQ1 2026Q2 earnings — HDD demand from hyperscalers

MEDIUM2026HAMR technology ramp (heat-assisted magnetic recording)

Competitive Landscape

STX ↗Seagate Technology

Only other major HDD maker — effective duopoly

SNDK ↗SanDisk

Former subsidiary, now SSD competitor to HDD

Company Background

Founded 1970. Pioneer of the hard disk drive. Spun off SanDisk NAND business in 2024 to become a pure-play HDD company focused on cloud and enterprise bulk storage.