mPulse Index
$100K PORTFOLIO12 holdings · AI-curated · benchmarked vs SPY
Trending Events
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AI Infrastructure Boom
Trading Day 10: Pre-GTC positioning visible — CRDO +5.49% ($112→$118) leading AI semis into Monday keynote. AVGO -4.13% ($336→$322) on margin dilution concerns + CEO "2026 AI demand hard to pinpoint." PCE core 3.1% (hot) priced out rate cuts through Q3 but AI capex thesis decoupled from rates. GTC Monday (Mar 16), FOMC Tue-Wed (Mar 17-18). Five consecutive AI semi beats intact.
Geopolitical Instability
Day 14: New Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei vows to keep blocking Hormuz. 2 tankers caught fire in Iraqi waters (1 crew killed). U.S. KC-135 tanker lost in Iraq (not hostile). Israel targeting Iranian nuclear scientists. Treasury authorized Russian oil purchases to backfill supply. WTI $99 (+3.1%), Brent $103 (+2.7%). SPY -0.57% ($666→$662). BAH +1.50% ($77→$78). 1,444+ killed, 18,551 injured. No ceasefire signals.
Quantum Computing Breakout
IONQ -0.15% ($33→$33) — flat after yesterday's -3.62% selloff. SPY -0.57% (mild). PCE core 3.1% (hot) priced out rate cuts through Q3 — negative for speculative names but quantum held up. RGTI 108-qubit deployment target ~2 weeks away. No quantum-specific catalyst. GTC Monday may include quantum computing mentions.
Global Trade Realignment
Oil at $99 WTI (+3.1%), Brent $103 (+2.7%) — Day 14 of Hormuz blockade. 20+ ships damaged. Trade costs continue surging: shipping insurance, fuel surcharges, Asian supply chains all repricing. PCE core 3.1% (hot) confirms inflation pressure building. Treasury authorized Russian oil purchases — pragmatic trade policy shift. Canada tariff exemptions expire Apr 2 (20 days). Section 122 ~127 days. PPI Mar 18.
New Trade Bloc Formation
GLD -1.29% ($467→$461) — third consecutive gold selloff despite oil at $99 and Day 14 of Hormuz blockade. GLD now 9.6% below ATH ($510). The geopolitical gold bid is clearly exhausted as dollar/yield forces dominate. TLT -0.49% ($87→$87). PCE core 3.1% (hot) strengthens dollar via yield rise. Treasury authorizing Russian oil = pragmatic realignment, not de-dollarization. Gulf states under attack but no bloc formation progress.
USD & Fed Policy
PCE RESULT: Core 3.1% YoY (up from 3.0%, hot). Headline 2.8% (in line). 2Y yield surged 3.8%→4.4%. Rate cuts priced out through Q3 2026. CME FedWatch: 75% hold at 3.5-3.75% through summer. 10Y 4.285%. TLT -0.49% ($87→$87). Oil at $99 WTI will make March/April data worse. FOMC Mar 17-18 (Tuesday-Wednesday). Fed trapped: hot PCE + $99 oil vs BLS -92K employment weakness.
Energy Grid Supercycle
ENPH +3.45% ($43→$44) — solar rallying DESPITE hot PCE (core 3.1%). Oil at $99 WTI, Brent $103 overpowering the rate headwind for the first time. CEG +0.07% ($302→$302) flat. FSLR -0.75% ($198→$196). Oil approaching $100 makes the energy alternatives argument overwhelming. GTC Monday for AI data center power demand. FOMC Mar 17-18.
US Debt & Spending Crisis
BAH +1.50% ($77→$78) — second consecutive green day. Defense repricing continues as Day 14 eliminates de-escalation thesis. LMT -1.08% ($653→$646), RTX +0.99% ($203→$205). PCE core 3.1% (hot) worsens deficit financing: 10Y 4.285%, 2Y 4.4%. Oil $99 heading toward $100 means war costs + inflation both rising. FY2026 deficit tracking above $1.9T. FOMC Mar 17-18.
AI Workforce Disruption
ACN +0.51% ($196→$197) — slight bounce after yesterday's -2.70%. DUOL +3.16% ($95→$98) rebounding again. RHI -4.35% ($23→$22) — staffing firm declining, consistent with displacement thesis. PCE core 3.1% (hot) + oil $99 = companies facing dual cost pressure (energy + financing) will accelerate AI adoption to cut headcount. BLS -92K (Mar 6) still dominant. April BLS is the clean test.
Intelligence Briefs
Market Intelligence Brief
Trading Day 10: PCE core came in hot at 3.1% (up from 3.0%) — the Fed's preferred inflation measure moving in the wrong direction. Rate cuts priced out through Q3 2026. 2Y yield surged 3.8% to 4.4%. Meanwhile, Day 14 of the Hormuz blockade: Mojtaba Khamenei vowed indefinite closure, 2 tankers hit in Iraqi waters (1 killed), WTI↗ $99 (+3.1%), Brent $103. SPY↗ -0.57% ($666→$662). The mPulse Index was essentially flat at -0.01%, holding at +4.82% cumulative vs SPY↗ +0.30% (alpha +4.52%). The standout: CRDO +5.49% pre-GTC↗ rally and ENPH +3.45% — solar rallying DESPITE hot PCE, suggesting oil at $99 is overpowering the rate headwind for the first time. AVGO -4.13% on CEO uncertainty about 2026 AI demand. GTC↗ Monday, FOMC Tuesday-Wednesday.
Event Signals
Recent developments strengthen this theme’s probability or benefit exposed stocks
CRDO +5.49% pre-GTC↗ positioning. AVGO -4.13% CEO uncertainty. PCE hot but AI capex decoupled from rates. GTC↗ Monday. 88% probability.
Recent developments weaken this theme or pressure exposed stocks
Day 14: Khamenei vows indefinite Hormuz blockade. 2 tankers hit, KC↗-135 lost. WTI↗ $99, Brent $103. Treasury authorized Russian oil. 1,444+ killed. 92% probability.
No significant change in this theme’s outlook
IONQ flat at $33 — stabilizing after yesterday's -3.62%. PCE hot but quantum selling exhaustion. RGTI 108-qubit ~2 weeks. GTC↗ Monday could mention quantum. 40% probability.
Recent developments weaken this theme or pressure exposed stocks
WTI↗ $99, Brent $103. Day 14. Trade costs compounding. PCE hot confirms inflation building. Treasury authorized Russian oil. Canada tariff 20 days. 70% probability.
Recent developments weaken this theme or pressure exposed stocks
GLD -1.29% (3rd straight selloff). Geopolitical gold bid exhausted — dollar/yield strength (2Y 4.4%) overpowering. FOMC is the inflection. 50% probability.
Recent developments weaken this theme or pressure exposed stocks
PCE core 3.1% (HOT↗). 2Y yield 3.8%→4.4%. Rate cuts priced out through Q3. FOMC Mar 17-18. Fed trapped: hot PCE + $99 oil vs employment weakness. 72% probability.
Key catalyst approaching that could shift this theme’s direction
ENPH +3.45% DESPITE hot PCE — oil at $99 overpowering rate headwind for solar for the first time. CEG flat. Regime change signal. GTC↗ Monday. FOMC inflection. 80% probability.
Key catalyst approaching that could shift this theme’s direction
BAH +1.50% (2nd green day). Defense repricing continues. PCE hot worsens deficit financing — 10Y 4.285%, 2Y 4.4%. Day 14 Hormuz. 52% probability.
Recent developments weaken this theme or pressure exposed stocks
RHI -4.35% (staffing declining = displacement signal). ACN +0.51% bounce. Oil $99 + hot PCE = dual cost pressure accelerating AI adoption. 70% probability.
Bullish = strengthens theme · Bearish = weakens it · Inflecting = catalyst approaching
Index Changelog
Cross-Event Alpha
Trading Day 10 delivered the hottest data point of the conflict: PCE core 3.1% (rising from 3.0%) priced out rate cuts through Q3 and sent the 2Y yield surging to 4.4%. Yet the portfolio was essentially flat (-0.01%) while SPY↗ fell -0.57%. The diversification thesis is working. The day's standout was the oil-vs-rate divergence: ENPH +3.45% despite hot PCE shows oil at $99 WTI↗ is overpowering the rate headwind for solar — a potential regime change. CRDO +5.49% confirmed AI capex is decoupled from both rates and oil, with the market front-running GTC↗ Monday. AVGO -4.13% was the drag, CEO uncertainty denting the largest AI name. Defense held gains (BAH +1.50%, 2nd day). GLD -1.29% (3rd straight selloff) confirms the geopolitical gold bid is exhausted. At +4.82% cumulative vs SPY↗ +0.30% (alpha +4.52%), portfolio value is ~$100,500. GTC↗ Monday → FOMC Wednesday is the most information-dense window since inception.
Upcoming Catalysts
·Mar 16 (Monday): NVIDIA GTC↗ — Jensen Huang keynote 11 AM PT. Blackwell Ultra, demand guidance. Key for CRDO, SMCI, AVGO.
·Mar 17-18 (Tue-Wed): FOMC meeting + dot plot — 0 cuts vs 2 cuts after hot PCE. CME↗ 75% hold at 3.5-3.75%.
·Mar 18: PPI release — producer prices, energy cost pass-through. Same day as FOMC decision.
·Mar 19: Micron (MU) Q2 earnings — HBM↗ demand confirmation.
·Ongoing: Iran Day 14 — Khamenei vows indefinite Hormuz closure. WTI↗ $99, Brent $103. 20+ ships struck. 1,444+ killed.
Morning Briefing
Trading Day 10 — Brent closed above $100 for the first time since Aug 2022. Yesterday was the sharpest selloff since the conflict began: SPY↗ -1.52% to $666, WTI↗ surged to $96, VIX↗ spiked to 26. New Supreme Leader vows Hormuz stays closed. Iran Day 14 with 6,000+ targets struck and 1,348+ civilians killed. PCE inflation prints at 8:30 AM today — the single most important data point before FOMC in 4 days. GTC↗ 3 days away. Futures flat pre-PCE.
Overnight Developments
Iran Day 14, Trading Day 10. 6,000+ targets struck, 1,348+ civilians killed. New Supreme Leader vows Hormuz stays closed. Pezeshkian outlined 3 ceasefire conditions — widely seen as a non-starter. No de-escalation signals. Brent closed $100.46 yesterday, first close above $100 since Aug 2022. Hormuz chokes 20% of global oil supply.
The new Supreme Leader's Hormuz vow removes any near-term de-escalation path. Yesterday's SPY↗ -1.52% selloff was the sharpest since the conflict began — the market is finally pricing in extended disruption. Oil above $100 is a psychological milestone that changes the inflation calculus for the FOMC meeting in 4 days.
Palisades nuclear plant NRC approved for restart (Mar 11) — would be the first US plant restarted after decommissioning. License renewal deadline Mar 24. Late March restart target. Oil at $96 (Brent $100+) strengthens the nuclear and solar energy independence thesis to its highest level since the conflict began.
Palisades NRC approval is a landmark for nuclear energy and directly bullish for CEG as the largest US nuclear fleet operator. Combined with oil above $100, energy independence investments have their strongest tailwind of the crisis. CEG at $302 after yesterday's selloff is a compelling entry against this catalyst.
PCE inflation (Fed's preferred gauge) prints at 8:30 AM ET today — BEFORE this briefing can be updated. This is the final major inflation read before FOMC Mar 17-18 (4 days away). 10Y yields at 4.27% (5-week high). Oil above $100 will feed into March/April CPI even if today's PCE is benign.
PCE is the key unknown of the session. A hot print would slam rate-sensitive names (ENPH, FSLR, TLT) and raise the stakes for FOMC. A cool print could rally bonds and give the Fed cover to hold. Either way, oil above $100 makes the FOMC decision harder — the backward-looking PCE may not capture the inflationary impulse ahead.
NVIDIA GTC↗ keynote Mar 16 is 3 days away — Vera Rubin + Feynman architectures. AI names sold off with the broad market on Day 9 (CRDO -3.7% after Day 8's +3.19% post-earnings rally) but the thesis is entirely intact. Five consecutive AI semi earnings beats (AVGO, CRDO, MRVL). Micron earnings Mar 19 for HBM↗ demand signals.
GTC↗ in 3 days is the next major AI catalyst. Day 9's broad selloff pulled back AI names but didn't break any thesis — CRDO's Day 8 +3.19% rally showed demand is structural. The GTC↗/FOMC/MU window (Mar 16-19) is the densest catalyst cluster since the conflict began. Position sizing and cash management matter more than direction.
Index Watch
SPY↗ futures flat pre-PCE. VIX↗ ~26. PCE at 8:30 AM is THE session driver — hot print = sell bonds/rate-sensitive, cool print = relief rally. Brent above $100 is the new reality. GTC↗ Mar 16 (3 days), FOMC Mar 17-18 (4 days), PPI Mar 18, Micron Mar 19 — densest catalyst window since the conflict began. 10Y at 4.27% (5-week high). Cash at 7.15% provides optionality into this catalyst cluster.
◆ Market Dislocations
SCANNER via mPulseSecurities the market is mispricing right now.
Generated Mar 13, 2026, 11:35 AM UTC
AI Infrastructure: GTC in 3 Days — Imminent Catalyst
NVIDIA GTC keynote Mar 16 is 3 days away (Vera Rubin + Feynman architectures). AI names sold off with the broad market on Day 9 but no thesis was broken — CRDO pulled back -3.7% after Day 8's +3.19% rally, AVGO at $336. Five consecutive AI semi earnings beats (AVGO, CRDO, MRVL) confirm structural demand. Micron earnings Mar 19 for HBM demand. The GTC/FOMC/MU window (Mar 16-19) is the densest catalyst cluster since the conflict began.
Brent Above $100: Hormuz Closure Vow, No De-Escalation Path
Brent closed $100.46 yesterday — first close above $100 since Aug 2022. WTI at $96. New Supreme Leader vows Hormuz stays closed. Pezeshkian's 3 ceasefire conditions widely seen as a non-starter. Hormuz chokes 20% of global supply. E&P economics at $96 oil are the strongest since the conflict began. Goldman raised Q4 forecasts. This is no longer a spike — $100 oil is the new baseline while Hormuz is closed.
PCE Today + FOMC 4 Days: The Rate-Sensitive Binary
PCE inflation (Fed's preferred gauge) prints at 8:30 AM — the final major inflation read before FOMC Mar 17-18 (4 days). 10Y at 4.27% (5-week high). Oil above $100 will feed into March/April CPI even if today's PCE is benign. Rate-sensitive names (ENPH, FSLR, TLT) face a binary event sequence: hot PCE = sell, cool PCE = relief rally. Either way, FOMC in 4 days is the resolution point.
Nuclear Renaissance: Palisades NRC Approved + Oil Above $100
NRC approved Palisades restart (Mar 11) — would be the first US nuclear plant restarted after decommissioning. License renewal deadline Mar 24. Directly bullish for CEG as largest US nuclear fleet operator. Conviction raised 78→84. Oil above $100 makes nuclear energy independence the strongest thesis since the conflict began. AI data center PPA demand provides the secular driver alongside geopolitical urgency.
Defense + Cyber: Day 14, Supreme Leader Vows No Ceasefire
Iran Day 14. New Supreme Leader vows Hormuz stays closed. 1,348+ civilians killed. No de-escalation signals. Cyber threat at maximum during leadership transition + active escalation. Defense premium deflation narrative weakened by sheer conflict duration — at 14 days, this is no longer a "quick strike." Intelligence spending (BAH, LDOS, CACI) remains the stickiest defense category.
AI infrastructure leader with GTC keynote 3 days away. $22B Q2 guidance (+47% YoY) and 143% AI semi revenue growth are structural. Five consecutive AI earnings beats (AVGO, CRDO, MRVL). Sold off with the broad market on Day 9 but thesis is entirely intact — AI capex trajectory is independent of oil, Iran, and rates. Densest catalyst window of 2026: GTC Mar 16, FOMC Mar 17, MU Mar 19.
AI connectivity specialist pulled back -3.7% on Day 9 broad selloff (from $115.91 to $111.57) after Day 8's +3.19% post-earnings rally. Still +14.7% from rebalance entry at $97.30. GTC Mar 16 (3 days) is the imminent catalyst — Vera Rubin architecture directly benefits connectivity layer. Five consecutive AI semi beats. 7% of the mPulse Index.
Brent closed above $100 for the first time since Aug 2022 — the oil thesis milestone. WTI at $96. New Supreme Leader vows Hormuz stays closed, removing near-term de-escalation path. Largest US integrated oil company with dominant Permian production. E&P economics at $96 are the strongest since the conflict began. Hormuz chokes 20% of global supply. Q1 earnings will reflect peak realization prices.
Leading AI server integrator near rebalance entry ($30.68, now $30.90 = +0.7%). Index rebalanced Mar 4 (+48 shares, 7% weight). Five consecutive AI semi beats. Liquid cooling adoption accelerating. GTC Mar 16 (3 days) for Vera Rubin + Feynman server infrastructure signals. AI server demand completely independent of oil/Iran dynamics.
Largest US nuclear fleet with TWO converging catalysts: (1) Palisades NRC approved restart (Mar 11) — would be the first US nuclear plant restarted after decommissioning, a landmark for the nuclear renaissance. License renewal deadline Mar 24. (2) Oil above $100 makes nuclear energy independence the strongest thesis since the conflict began. CEG at $302 after Day 9 broad selloff. AI data center PPAs provide secular demand. GTC Mar 16 (3 days) for AI power demand signals. 12% of the mPulse Index.
Pure-play Permian E&P with Brent above $100 for the first time since Aug 2022. WTI at $96. New Supreme Leader's Hormuz closure vow removes near-term de-escalation path. Permian economics at $96 are exceptional — well above pre-conflict $70s. FCF yield compelling at these realization prices. Q1 earnings will reflect peak oil environment.
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